Estimating a buyout price is NOT simple or easy!
However, once an estimate is made, the calculation for the value in dollars per share is relatively simple as I discussed. Remember a "buyout" would include all outstanding shares as well as all outstanding warrants, stock options and debt. So even though there are only 86M shares of PTN currently outstanding, one must try to figure out the total share count when fully diluted after conversion of warrants, stock options, etc. to common shares. I estimated 200M shares for this number, but should be able to update this once their next 10-Q report is released.
The real unknown here is timing of a buyout announcement. Some have guessed by end of November, others by end of 2016. Still others have guessed several months to as long as 6 months. Normally I would guess 3-6 months also. However in this case, there are 3 reasons why I suspect a deal could be announced within 1-2 months:
1) PTN is nearly out of cash as we will see in their next 10-Q report. So unless they plan to raise more cash by issuing more shares (like they did recently), they will need to make a deal ASAP.
2) Also, since PTN has probably known about the positive trial outcome for many months, they have already had time to put out feelers for a buyout and probably also had time to do some "preliminary" negotiations with 1 or more potential buyers.
3) There is a rumor that has been reported that PTN has retained a vendor to handle negotiating the best possible deal for them. That could be a buyout or some other arranged takeover (merger, partnership, etc.)
Disclaimer: All of the above are my own opinions. No one should buy or sell shares of PTN based on these opinions. As always, DO YOUR OWN DD!
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