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Replies to post #70109 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
11/05/16 8:58 AM
We should see a trend change come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 1795995 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 1839996 to 1795995. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Nov. 4, 2016, the market is immediately in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level warning caution should be taken especially since it's trading below the December 2015 high. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 1788828 and is trading up about 2.65% for the year from last year's closing of 1742503. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 1788356 following the high established Mon. Oct. 24, 2016.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 15th at 1872261, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 27th. We have been generally trading down for the past week from the high of the week of October 24th, which has been a move of 2.14% percent in a stark panic type decline. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 24th reaching 1827504 has failed to exceed the previous high of 1872261 made back during the week of August 15th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past 16 weeks. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1739916 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible. Broadly, my expanded view prospective recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been a long-term Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials which remains in motion as long as we hold above 1739915 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing. We need to see a monthly closing back above 1801500 to confirm the uptrend will recommence.
Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2015.
Addressing the immediate trend remains bearish since October made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1835136. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 1827504, which was created during the week of October 24th. The last weekly level low was 1706308, which formed during the week of June 27th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 1811626 above the market. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 14 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 1872261, which was created during August. However, we still remain below key resistance 1793461 on a closing basis.
