Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/26 2016 EOD
The volume, combined with the conventional TA oscillators being uniformly very negative, including strongly oversold indications, suggest we may have finally bottomed. I'm not ready to buy it because of the recent short interest reports and my intra-day observations several times suggesting shorters were pushing on price often during the last few days.
There's always hope though because consolidation with a negative bias behavior after a big negative catalyst is common and often ends with a big volume spike and lots of negative indications.
For now I'm sticking with yesterday's { ... best case is more consolidation without the weakening bias. But that "without" is only a weak possibility suggested by a volume rise sufficient, relative to recent trends, to suggest we may have bottomed. Unfortunately it's not high enough to preclude the possibility of increasing strength in a move lower. }
I do move away from yesterday's { I'm going agnostic for the moment - no reason I see to believe either flat or down is more likely and no reason to believe up is more likely yet. } Ignoring the shorters, what is seen today does suggest that more down is less likely. So I go with flat as most likely and up some as possible. Trying to factor in the shorters would be futile as I can't know if attractive covering prices or perceived weakness offering more easy downside to short into are driving their behavior. If we had shown any strength it would be easy guess which.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 9:29 was 6.1K:6K $1.03/11.
09:30-09:46 opened the day with a 9,040 sell for $1.05 & 6.6K more $1.06->$1.04. Then came 9:31's b/a 8.3K:8.9K $1.04/5, 9:31's ~6.7K $1.05 (5K)->$1.04, 9:33's 100 $1.04, 9:34's 1.1K $1.04, 9:37's 6K $1.04/5, 9:38's b/a 6K:7.5K $1.04/5, 9:38's 12.1K (incl 10K $1.05 blk) $1.05->$1.04, 9:39's 23.5K $1.04->$1.03, 9:40's 100 $1.03, 9:41's 8.6k $1.0300/90, 9:42's 1.3K $1.03. 9:43's 300 $1.03, 9:44's 300 $1.03, and 9:45's b/a 4.3K:5.4K $1.04/5.
That began a decline from $1.03/4 to end the period when it hit 9:46's 8.4K $1.03->$1.0368->$1.03->$1.02->$1.03.
9:47-10:08, after one no-trades minute, began mostly very low/no-volume $$1.02/3 (mostly $1.02 initially) on 9:48's 3.5K $1.0250/3->$1.0200/50->$1.02. B/a at 9:53 was 18.6K:6.3K $1.02/3. The period ended on 10:08's 3.3K $1.0200/50.
10:09-10:35 began a drop with low/medium-volume $1.01/2 on 10:09's 22.9K $1.01/2. B/a at 10:14 was 16K:11.3K $1.01/2. The next drop was on 10:27's 100.8K $1.00/2. Low-volume $1.00/1 followed. B/a at 10:33 was 36.1K:11.9K $1.00/1. The period ended on 10:35's 500 $1.00.
10:36-12:53 began very low/no-volume $1.01/2 on 10:36's 20.8K $1.01->$1.0100/50. B/a at 10:55 was 13K:4K $1.01/2, 11:18 12.2K:3/9K $1.01/2, 11:49 18.9K:14.2K $.01/2, 12:12 18.3K:16.2K $1.01/2, 12:48 16.6K:19.6K $1.01/2. The period ended on 12:53's 985 $1.0102->$1.0000/01.
12:54-12:58, after one no-trades minute, did a high-volume round trip on 12:55's ~60.7K $1.01->$1.0150/$1.02->$1.03->$1.04->$1.05->$1.02/3->$1.01, 12:56-:57's 3.1K $1.01->$1.02->$1.0150, and 12:58's 55.7K $1.02->$1.01->$1.02->$1.0150->$1.03->$1.04->$1.05->$1.06->$1.0699->$1.07->$1.0350->$1.03->$1.02.
12:59-13:42 began extremely low/no-volume $1.03/4 on 12:59's 300 $1.03. The period ended on 13:42's 1.5K $1.0300/$1.0301.
13:43-13:58, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.02/3 on 13:44's 405 $1.0200/$1.0203. The period ended on 13:58's 701 $1.03.
13:59-14:14 had b/a at 14:03 of 546:5.1K $1.03/4. Then after eight no-trades minutes began very low/no-volume $1.03/4 on 14:06's 107 $1.04. The period ended on 14:14's 100 $1.02.
14:15-14:37, after one no-trades minute, began a down move on 14:16-:17's 36.1K $1.02->$1.01 and began very low/no-volume $1.01/$1.01xx. B/a at 14:25 was 13.1K:16.1K $1.01/2. Spread went $1.01/2 at 14:29. B/a at 14:33 was 8.7K:16.7K $1.01/2. The period ended on 14:37's 3K $1.01.
14:38-15:51 stepped down and began very low/no-volume $1.00/1 on 14:38's 11.3K $1.00/1. B/a at 14:50 was 45.9K:11.9K $1.00/1. Volume and price was interrupted by 15:19-:20's 46.1K $1.00/2. B/a at 15:33 was 57.7K:6.2K $1.00/1, 15:50 40.1K:18.6K $1.00/1. The period ended on 15:51's 18.6K $1.00/1.
15:52-15:59 began with b/a 1.5K:3.9K $1.01/2 and kicked off EOD volatility with 15:52's 16.8K $1.00->$1.02->$1.01, did 15:53's 9.2K $1.01/2, hit 15:54's 2.7K$1.02/3 and traded there on medium volume until 15:58's 27.2K $1.04->$1.02->$1.03. The period and day closed on 15:59's 20.6K $1.03->$1.02->$1.03 and there was no closing 16:00 trade.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 30 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 260,507, 28.87% of day's volume, with a $1.0261 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 29 larger trades totaling 251,467, 27.86% of day's volume, with a $1.0253 VWAP. The counts and percentages are fairly normal. Both groups' VWAPs were above the day's $1.0197. Normally I would suspect that meant some retail traders got excited about the low price and jumped on the opportunity. But considering the recent three weeks increases in short interest I more strongly suspect it was shorters doing covering buys for their shorts, some of which in the first weeks of September were shorted in the $1.6x-$1.7x range and even in the first week of October were shorting in the $1.4x area I think. Recall a couple days back I thought shorts were pushing price down to cover and the way the volumes and buy percentages worked out today makes me suspect they were doing it today too.
Note the big change in buy percentages and VWAPs on some of the significant periods below. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:46 78595 $1.0200 $1.0600 $81,784.87 $1.0406 8.71% 33.05% Incl 09:30 $1.0500 9,040 09:31 $1.0500 5,000
09:38 $1.0500 10,000 09:39 $1.0400 6,100
09:39 $1.0300 9,126
10:08 21370 $1.0200 $1.0300 $21,868.68 $1.0233 2.37% 32.08%
10:35 169119 $1.0000 $1.0200 $171,030.92 $1.0113 18.74% 43.64% Incl 10:09 $1.0200 4,715 5,000
10:14 $1.0190 5,000 10:27 $1.0200 21,600
10:27 $1.0100 12,058 17,942
10:34 $1.0099 5,000
12:53 110898 $1.0100 $1.0200 $112,380.09 $1.0134 12.29% 39.75% Incl 10:36 $1.0150 5,000 11:28 $1.0100 18,050
12:37 $1.0200 6,000
12:58 119279 $1.0100 $1.0700 $123,403.28 $1.0346 13.22% 49.75% Incl 12:55 $1.0200 5,000 $1.0400 5,000
12:55 $1.0500 4,773 12:58 $1.0200 4,231
12:58 $1.0699 13,661
13:42 16247 $1.0300 $1.0400 $16,805.54 $1.0344 1.80% 49.66%
13:58 51860 $1.0200 $1.0300 $53,405.36 $1.0298 5.75% 46.44% Incl 13:53 $1.0300 20,000 10,000
13:57 $1.0300 10,000
14:14 5000 $1.0200 $1.0400 $5,137.36 $1.0275 0.55% 46.58%
14:37 56740 $1.0100 $1.0241 $57,546.10 $1.0142 6.29% 42.60% Incl 14:16 $1.0241 5,000 14:17 $1.0110 12,411
15:51 179853 $1.0000 $1.0200 $180,902.47 $1.0058 19.93% 42.80% Incl 14:39 $1.0099 6,500 15:36 $1.0000 5,000
15:36 $1.0100 4,300 15:58 $1.0400 5,000
15:59 89649 $1.0000 $1.0400 $92,019.65 $1.0264 9.93% 41.06% Incl 15:59 $1.0300 10,000
As has been so common recently, what starts as an apparent improvement in the buy percentages with volume (~56% of day's volume) that looks like VWAP may get some upward momentum going turns into weakening buy percentage with falling VWAP later in the day.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.87% -4.76% -0.01% -1.90% 140.96%
Prior -1.83% -0.94% -1.83% -2.78% 44.62%
As with yesterday, { the only possible good thing here is the volume, relative to recent trends, is very high, possibly indicating the bottom of this short-term consolidation if one believes this volume is not the sign of increasing strength in the downward move. } I also noted though { Considering the short and buy percentage below we don't see support for the volume not indicating increasing strength in the downward move. } Put another way, it meant that my unconventional stuff was not supporting a lack of strength downward.
Today the volume is certainly high enough to suggest we had a flush that signals a bottom and that the sag lower should now start abating. This seems supported by the reducing short percentage (see below), although it's at the high end of my desired range, and the rising buy percentage (see below), although it's still down in the area that does not yet suggest no more downside is likely.
On my minimal chart, we continue the apparent consolidation with a flat high and a low that dropped to match the low of $1.00 seen the day after the financing announcement, 10/19. The volume, rising on the sag over the last three days, looks like it hit a high enough value to mark a bottom. As mentioned, unlike yesterday when it looked like the volume might suggest that but wasn't supported at all by my unconventional stuff, today there's no doubt the volume is high enough and my unconventional stuff is a bit more supportive, although not firmly so. Regardless, it looks like volume should start to decline now and price should stabilize around this low area near-term.
On my one-year chart, yesterday we got the "Death Cross" as the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. The 10, 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs continue descending. All the SMAs should continue to drop barring a substantial near-term rise.
The oscillators I watch all continued weakening and today full stochastic joined RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R in oversold. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.9299 and $1.4809 ($0.9579 and $1.5129 yesterday) are almost parallel now and both are dropping very rapidly. A price move to the mid-point, ~$1.20 today, would be welcomed by all I think. If the volume suggestion that we flushed is accurate we should see the start of a move to the mid-point after day or two of flat.
All in, only the extreme negatives in the technical indicators, volume, oscillators, SMA, ... suggest we've bottomed and should turn around. However, this is counter to the recent short interest reports and relatively high daily short percentages that have been all too common recently. Further, attractive low potential covering buy price availability notwithstanding, my recent comments have included several observations by me that I thought shorters were driving price down, possibly to do covering buys. The ease with which they (may) have been able to do this may embolden them to continue the practice - "If it ain't broke don't fix it".
So I'm not ready to go any further than I have recently - we appear to be continuing to consolidate with weakness still suggested.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good, but today seeing short percentage drop back into the high end of my desired range (needs re-check) seems a positive. I'd like to think the buy percentage improvement was a positive too but it's still down in a range that does not normally produce upward pressure of any kind. It usually results in more weakness. So today these two give me mixed indications.
The spread "blew out" today, going from very tight consolidation ranges to a range reflecting the big drop in VWAP and price range today. In a normal down trend, without a suggestion of a bottom from very high volume, this suggests more downside. With the volume rising three days and today hitting a very high value it may just be reflecting that we've "flushed" and the bottom has been hit.
That's a big may though since we don't see any strong support for this being the case outside the volume. Buy percentage doesn't support it and short percentage is still too high to think that supports it.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again deteriorated, going from 14 negatives and 10 positives to 15 and 9 respectively. Change since 09/22 is -$0.3806, -27.18%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.2441%, -0.9932%, -0.8187%, -0.8505%, -0.8923%, -1.0866%, -0.6859%, -0.2351%, -0.6179%, and -0.8203%.
All in, nothing other than the volume strongly suggests we've ended the sag within the consolidation.
Bill
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