Competition grows Tuesday (Feb. 28), Bloomberg reported that Teva Pharmaceuticals paid a marketing agent to publicize an abstract of an as-yet-unpublished article comparing Tysabri's effect on the human immune system to AIDS.
The way the media reported the story made it sound like Tysabri gave patients AIDS-like symptoms. I think the authors of this paper would be aghast to see their research used in this way. It's true that both Tysabri and AIDS suppress the immune system. Tysabri suppresses the immune system when it’s beneficial to do so, such as when you have an autoimmune disease like MS. AIDS suppresses your immune system to your detriment.
Teva's investment bankers have been active as well. Citigroup, you may recall, has a “sell” rating on Elan, which they reiterated about a month ago. Lehman Brothers also has a “sell” on Elan which they updated on Thursday, stating that they expect 50 to 100 additional cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in the next couple of years if Tysabri returns to the market.
An article in the current issue of the New England Journal of Medicine estimates the risk of PML to be 1 in 1000. This estimate was arrived at by an independent adjudication committee that had full access to all available data on virtually all patients who had taken Tysabri, either alone or in combination with another drug. In order for Lehman's forecast of 50 to 100 additional cases of PML to be correct, there would need to be 50,000 to 100,000 patients on Tysabri in a couple of years. 50,000 to 100,000 patients would generate between $1 and $2 billion a year in sales, which is a lot more than the $490 million Lehman is predicting Tysabri to generate at peak sales.
Why would you deny even the possibility of BP manipulation? That's like insisting that Mutual Funds don't cheat. I'm not saying who's dirty or how much bad stuff is going on and frankly, as a LTBH player, I don't care. What I do care about is whether the company I have invested in can weather the storm -- whatever that may be. I agree that there are those that have legitimate doubts about DNDN's future. But as a good friend of mine once said, if you can think it, if you can imagine it, you can be certain that it is being done.
I don't think DNDN is out of the woods yet. If they fail to secure FDA approval the first time out -- a real possibility IMHO -- things will get dicy.
I'm quite long DNDN, very patient, watching closely for over a year now, jaded and cynical. This market is a dirty business. These days there are no guarantees of anything.
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