The NOAA winter outlook that was just released shows cooler than normal along north central US and warmer than normal along much of southern US. Typical La Niña pattern.
Joe Bastardi at weatherbell is going with an amplified winter pattern. Warm across west and cold across east. He seems to think that the weak La Niña will be overruled by the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific. It is this warm pool of water in the NE Pacific that caused the bend in the jetstream 2 and 3 winters ago that brought down extremely cold air into the eastern US.
Celsius/NOAA...predictions of upper 50's to lower 60's for temps on Eastern Sea Board temps most of week
Based on the 0Z run of the GFS computer model, for the 15 day period from October 21 to November 5, mean population-weighted temperatures are forecast to average 58.0°F which is +1.4°F warmer than average. Daily forecast mean temperatures will range from a max of 62.7°F on October 21 to a minumum of 53.3°F on November 5. Natural Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs)--a calculation that estimates the contribution of temperature to natural gas demand--will total 246 GWDDs during this same 15-day period, -1% below the historical average of 247 GWDDs suggesting that natural gas demand will be suppressed relative to seasonal averages.
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