Recent SPX action brings more questions than answers
* October 24, 2016
The market has continued to whipsaw market participants. This has been the action we have experienced now for months, especially since we began looking for the market to provide us with a wave (ii) pullback. Until Friday afternoon, I expected the market to provide us with a lower low to complete wave (ii). But Friday's action has me questioning that perspective.
The analysis I can provide you this week is actually quite simple when you break it down to one thing: As long as the market remains below 2149 on the S&P 500 SPX, +0.36% early this week, I am expecting the market to resolve its pattern lower to complete wave (ii). My ideal target now resides between 2065-2090SPX to complete the 5th wave of this c-wave in an ending diagonal wave (ii), and even taking us into the middle of November.
Should the market be able to move through the 2149SPX level early this week and follow through over 2170SPX, that makes a very strong case that wave (ii) is done, and the market has potentially begun its rally to our next intermediate target of 2350SPX. While I will still need the blue 1-2 to play out, with the move over the top of the blue 1 to confirm this, a move back up to the highs from here would go a long way to turning the tide for the bulls.
Ultimately, I still am of the belief that the bull market which began in 2009 has not topped. Rather, I believe we will see at least one more longer-term rally before we can even consider this long-term bull to have completed, which still means we attain my next target of 2537-2610 before this market provides us with any long-term top.
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