This is the best scenario I can think of....
Pfizer already had big sales numbers for Celebrex. They know what the drug did to their bottom line. They have all the doctors on board with the drug, but only recently losing handful of cash due to generics. So not a lot of time or work to pop in revenue hard in 6 months. This could generate $3b+ a year after the second year for them. All the channels are in place.
Knowing how much they can make in a short time, wouldn't $1.5-4b buyout be on the table? Dexcel can't afford that, or maybe they can. I'm pretty sure Pfizer has been watching this for a while. All I'm saying is I see buyout talk on thesis of estimating sales being unknown, and usually buyouts are 2-4x annual revenue. So everyone is shooting low at $300-500m.
Run with this thesis though....this a superior drug to a known money maker of $3.3b worldwide right before generic. The sales channels are still in place so there really is no ramping up. The Celebrex and generic are making over $3b a year. It's a matter of communicating to doctors that they need to switch from generic or Celebrex to the improved version. Stop running sales figures as a brand new drug with no history of acceptance. Use current sales figures....past and future forecast...to obtain a fair buyout price.
My biggest fear is that they will just sell the drug and not the company. Leaving us with a ton of cash, but no future unless they find another drug to combo to package and sell.
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