Replies to post #592 on Hovnanian Enterprises Class A (HOV)

[dude iligence]

HOV $1.78 +6% post election. Trump Bump as predicted will turn into sustained rally as America experiences the biggest infrastructure and building boom in decades.

[dude iligence]

Why Hovnanian Enterprises Stock Jumped 10% on Friday
The stock's for sale, and potential buyers are queuing up.

Rich Smith (TMFDitty) Dec 2, 2016 at 6:50PM
Reading Tea Leaves
INVESTORS WHO BID UP HOVNANIAN STOCK ON FRIDAY MAY HAVE BEEN READING THE TEA LEAVES AHEAD OF NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS REPORT. IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

What happened
Donald Trump's pick to run the Treasury Department uttered some frightening words for homeowners -- and investors in homebuilders -- this week, promising to "cap" the deduction of mortgage interest payments from taxpayers' income taxes sometime in the next four years. And yet, shares of homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV) nonetheless were off to the races in Friday trading, gaining as much as 10.5% during the day before closing up 8.5%.

What gives?

So what
Political promises come and political promises go, and anything the President-elect's cabinet wants to get done must first survive Congress before it can become a law. Meanwhile, Hovnanian soldiers on in the business of building and selling houses -- and reporting earnings from same.

In that regard, investors may be discounting Treasury pick Mnuchin's threat to cap the mortgage interest deduction at some time in the far future, and choosing instead to focus on Hovnanian's upcoming earnings report, which is due out on Thursday, December 8.

Now what
According to analysts who follow the company, Hovnanian is expected to report a $0.02 per-share loss for the fiscal year on Thursday. If they're right, that won't be "good" news exactly, but it will be a smaller loss than the $0.11 per-share loss reported in fiscal 2015. At the same time, analysts are looking to see Hovnanian report a big jump in sales for the year, with $2.77 billion in 2016 revenue eclipsing last year's total by 29%.

Even more important than the 2016 results could be Hovnanian's promises for the year ahead. Currently unprofitable and likely to remain so after Thursday's results, Hovnanian is expected to return to profitability in 2017. If it confirms this expectation this coming week, and perhaps offers hope of earning more than analysts expect it to earn ($0.09 per share for 2017 is the current consensus), then investors who bid up Hovnanian shares on Friday could discover that they weren't just early -- but also right to buy.

[dude iligence]

HOV $3.1 Ascending Triple Top Breakout




re
Bought HOV $1.64-.68 on and around the 200ma. Not much excitement in housing stocks right now. buying this for long term holding. Home ownership is at the lowest level in 50 years. There is shortages in many of the major cities. I owned HOV prior to the housing boom about 15 years ago. I traded it around $4. HOV went to over $500 per share split adjusted at the height of the housing boom. They were not an industry leader then and they aren't now but a rising tide lifts all boats. I looked at the charts of the home builders LEN TOL PHM are down about 50% from their former highs. Their upside potential is not as great as HOV's. If Trump gets elected I expect their to be a building boom in many of the broken cities run down by democrats. If Hilary get elected just sell it and put the money to trading 3X etfs. I like HOV chart for its upside potential for multi-bagger. When I owned it at $4 I would have never thought it could or would go to over $500 per share. Its been 10 years since the housing boom peaked, economic cycle moves up then down then up again.


We can all thank Trump for our gains in HOV and future gains