Replies to post #7461 on Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[DennyCrane550]

ha, entertaining take, Brande

1) Reliance Rail has been upgraded by Moody's, thats a change

"Reliance Rail Finance Pty Ltd: Ratings Upgrade Reflects Expectation of Solid Operating Performance

Aug 22, 2016
...On # August ####, we upgraded Reliance Rail Finance Pty Ltd's senior secured bond and bank facility ratings to Ba# with a stable outlook, from Ba# positive. At the same time, we upgraded its subordinated debt rating to B# from B#. Reliance Rail was appointed by Sydney Trains in #### to design, build and maintain ## eight-car trains for the Sydney suburban rail network under a Public Private Partnership (PPP). The upgrades reflect our expectation that Reliance Rail will further build on its solid reliability track record since completion of the final train, and maintain revenue abatement, as a result of underperformance, at or below the budgeted level. The stable outlook reflects our expectation of continued low cashflow volatility and stability in operations. » Reliance Rail can build on its solid operating performance. The reliability performance of the fleet has continued to improve over the past ## months, and has remained materially above the contractual minimums stipulated in Reliance's..."

2) Puerto Rico is fine for Syncora - too much reserve right now in my opinon

3) I think Syncora is reserved fine on RMBS, as Real Estate is very hot right now, etc

Greenpoint resolution who knows

4) Odeon Note this morning makes the point on NYDFS:
"There is considerable doubt in the marketplace regarding Syncora’s ability to get approval from the NY DFS for future payouts. We believe that there are two principal reasons why future payouts are likely.

First, we believe regulators are loathe to turn Surplus Notes either ‘On’ or ‘Off’; having approved a paydown in August, the optics of denying the next paydown in June would be poor, suggesting a mistake had been made this year. Note that MBIA Corp. Surplus Notes received coupons well past the point of questions raised about Corp.’s viability.

Second, the company’s expected gross claims schedule for the next five years continues to improve (see page 2) and there no longer appears to be a meaningful liquidity mismatch."

5) Hopefully Syncora figures out their full plan for Detroit + Toll Roads assets, could be valuable if skillfully navigated

6-7) All the math is a crutch we all use, execution seems to be happening, we shall see...

brandemarcus Thursday, 09/22/16 07:54:53 PM
Re: DennyCrane550 post# 7453
Post #
7461
of 7461 Go
Now here comes my take on current situation:

1. There has been no change in the status of Reliance rail. They are still warning about this , but based on info from Denny this is a false worry on 800 million mismatch etc. There are other ssr's that amount to what 1.5 billion in total that may be worry but they are rated higher than Reliance Rail. Some of those Chilean toll roads are what bbb?

2. I still think we worry, talk too much about Puerto Rico. Not something that's going to amount to more than 20%-30% loss and it's already reserved for , and they even have purchased some bonds to offset the positions. I thought they said holding bonds increases exposure. Does not seem logical but may be for accounting purposes.

3. There is still 698 million in loss adjustment expenses for Rmbs. In operating supplements this is netted by the 277 million in cash flow certificates . This is roughly 300-400 million that would seem to me to be a pretty certain loss since it's rmbs backed by real estate. Of course most of this would be offset by winning the Greenpoint litigation ,but some recovery is already assumed in those figures.



4. There's still 2 billion plus in claims paying resources and perhaps half of that or more belongs to common or perhaps more as a result of the restructuring. I find it hard to imagine more than 400 million in losses , mostly from rmbs but we still have to run around warning the sky is falling until it doesn't. Then we have to have Nyisd certify the sky did not fall.

5. When 4# is completed the real book value will be allowed to be given back to shareholders plus pay off note holders. $6 plus or minus Greenpoint plus mc Quarrie plus toll roads plus Detroit property Plus how much of the Billion in tax losses will be recoverable.


6. I may not understand the situation even close to Denny or many other's. I may come up with $10 per share , others may be all the way between $ 5 to 15$. Who cares? 5> 1.46. Denny will explain to us(then change his estimates based on new news) whether the" bridge" can withstand 3.5 times or 20 times more weight than the maximum traffic on the bridge. My intuition let's me feel safe using the bridge. For your amusement the company is still saying the bridge is not safe. They are sand bagging for the New York insurance department and the accountants in the financials.


7. That's my current opinion of "The Margin of Safety" of Syncora.