There's only one thing markets can do to help ensure no rate increase between now and 9/21....scare the chit out of the fed, the ole tried and true " tantrum ". We saw it start last Friday , but was it too early, and is 215ish low enough of a price that the fed wouldn't raise? I don't think so, and I said weeks ago the market is in a catch 22 where it risks being punished for its success. The fed has to raise, otherwise they risk losing all credibility by going back on their promise to raise time and again, but also not raising risks impugning all the great and glorious things they've said about this six year " economic recovery" . If things are so great, then why are rates only a shade above " emergency levels " ( Fed's words, not mine ) ? Why have rates only been raised one time in 9 years?
Those questions will surely become louder still with no rate increase in 9/21, and now their actions will play a political role too, as trump has called the fed out multiple times lately for propping markets up.
The only way the fed can save face by not raising is if market turbulence provides cover for their decision. Is 215 turbulent enough? I think not so much.
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