The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016.
Crude oil: Saudi Arabia produced a record 10.673 million barrels per day in July, up from 10.550 mb/d in June. Its crude exports rose to 7.622 mb/d from 7.456 mb/d in June. Next week, OPEC meets in Algiers. Its 14 members are pumping more than 33 million barrels per day. Inaction means oil glut only gets worse.
In the U.S., in the week ended September 16th, crude stocks fell by 6.2 million barrels to 504.6 million barrels – the lowest since February 26th this year.
Gasoline stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 225.2 million barrels. This was the lowest since December 25th last year.
Distillate stocks, however, rose by 2.2 million barrels to 165 million barrels – the highest since January 8th this year.
Crude production increased by 19,000 b/d to 8.51 mb/d – a four-week high. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Crude imports stood at 8.3 mb/d, up 247,000 b/d.
Refinery utilization fell nine-tenths of a point to 92 percent – a 13-week low.
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude on Tuesday once again tested support at $43-$43.50, which held. This was followed by recapturing of the 50-day moving average, which was again lost on Friday. The spot would have met the declining trend line drawn from the June 9th high of $51.67/barrel around $48, but retreated before reaching there, with the intra-day high on Friday of $46.55. The pattern of lower highs since that peak continues.
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