Yes, the numbers can't lie or manipulate (at least until the accountants get a hold of them!). We are all just guessing now. But all the pieces seem to have been put into place.
Potential demand has skyrocketed due to an epidemic that is growing and shows no signs of slowing down. I get a strange, sick-to-my stomach feeling to think about it sometimes. Am I hoping to profit off the misery of others? I've come to the conclusion that probuphine offers a method out of the misery, and I'm happy to invest in a company that does that. But I don't want the market to grow...I want it to shrink. Strangely enough, if probuphine and other similar drugs work well, there will be much less demand for probuphine (by that time parkinsons, T3 and others will hopefully have grown to fruition).
The number of physicians trained exceeds expectations (around 2,400). Personally, I think 1 of 3 trained will be a dud...i.e., they were curious enough to get trained, but won't follow through with prescriptions. But as for the rest (around 1,600)...if each trained physician prescribes an average of one treatment per month, then basically sales meet Zachs 2018 prediction of $150 million a year (assuming 100% of patients treated in the first half of the year get a second treatment). Using the same math, it would take an average of 7 treatments per month for the 1,600 prescribing physicians to make probuphine a billion dollar a year drug.
Over 180 insurance companies have approved coverage, as has the VA, medicare and medicaid. This speaks loudest to me. Insurance companies, who are loath to pay for anything in my experience, seem to be saying yes, this is more expensive than pills or film, but we will cover probuphine because everything else we are trying is not working and, in the end, it's costing us more money.
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