Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 08/24 2016 EOD
As with yesterday, there's still a lot of short-term "noise" in everything and we should view today's stuff as having even less reliability than is normal.
Having said that, my unconventional stuff suggests the re-trace will continue as the buy/sell percentage shows folks taking profit/reducing losses and the short percentage being near the bottom of the range with a lot of larger trades driving VWAP lower intra-day suggests continued near-term weakness too.
The intra-day breakdown shows what went on - open "high" and just go down all day long. A pathetically weak "stick save" was attempted very late in the day but it didn't hold.
There were four pre-market trades totaling 1.1K $1.89 x200, $1.85 x 900.
09:30-09:30 opened the day with a 18,613 buy for $1.89 & 23,996 more traded $1.81 to $1.88 (150).
09:31-09:42 began a medium-volume drop to hit 9:40's $1.76, came back to $1.77/9 at 9:41 and ended on 9:42's $1.78/9.
9:43-10:00 began with 9:43's $1.80 and started down again on 9:51's $1.79/80 and hit $1.78/9 at 9:53, and began rising hitting 9:55's $1.79->$1.82, and ended on 10:00's $1.8150/82.
10:01-10:45 went sideways until 10:07's 9.1K did $1.83->$1.82->$1.8101->$1.80, went sideways until starting another down move on 10:14's ~12K $1.80->$1.79->$1.7810->$1.80 followed by several high-volume minutes in that range until 10:22 started a sideways $1.78/80 that ended when 10:36-:39 did 134.8K $1.78->$1.7735->$1.77/8->$1.76/7->$1.75/7->$1.75/6->$1.75->$1.77->$1.75->$1.74->$1.73->$1.72->$1.73/4->$1.74/5, and ended on 10:45's 1K $1.7520.
10:46-11:15 did a low/medium-volume $1.7450/1.76, deteriorating to almost $1.75 flat 10:57-11:13, and ended on 11:15's 1K $1.7592->$1.7650->$1.77.
11:16-11:45 stepped up on 11:16's 900 $1.77/8 and went very low volume there until 11:25's drop to $1.76 started the sideways $1.76/$1.7650 until ending the period on 11:44's 960 drop to $1.7501.
11:46-13:00 did a very low/no-volume $1.75/6.
13:01-13:30 did a drop on 13:06-:08's ~42.9K $1.75/$1.7550->$1.75/$1.7501->$1.7450->$1.74/$1.7450->$1.74->$1.73->$1.72 and went very low/no-volume $1.73/4 until 13:28-13:30's 23.8K $1.7293->$1.7350->$1.74 ended the period.
13:31-13:45, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.73/4 after doing 13:32-:33's ~30.3K $1.7415->$1.75->$1.74->$1.7350->$1.73/4 and ended on 13:44's 5K $1.7365.
13:46-14:30, after 10 no-trades minutes began very low/no-volume $1.73/4 and ended on 14:30's 100 $1.7380.
14:31-15:00, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume ~$1.73 on 14:33-:40's ~41.4K $1.73/$1.7354->$1.7239->$1.73$1.7250/$1.73->$1.73/$1.7354->$1.74->$1.7340.
15:01-15:54, after two no-trades minutes, began a mostly low-volume drop from 15:03's $1.72/$1.7237 to 15:04-"06's $1.71->$1.70, dropped again on 15:10's $1.69/70 and went sideways $1.70/71 until 15:23 stepped it up to $1.72/3, 15:29 dropped it back to $1.70/1, 15:34 brought it back to $1.71/2, 15:47 took it down to $1.70/1, and 15:50 put it back up to $1.71/2 where it finished the period.
15:55-16:00 tried to do a "hockey-stick" save, but couldn't complete it, when it moved on 15:55's $1.7150->$1.72->$1.73->$1.74->$1.75 and then did 15:56's $1.74->$1.73, 15:57's $1.7250->$1.72/3, 15:58's $1.7301, and ended the period and day on 15:59's ~6.3K $1.74->$1.73/4 and 16:00's 577 $1.74.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 35 larger trades (>=5K & 12 4K+) totaling 251,009, 24.29% of day's volume, with a $1.7658 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 34 larger trades totaling 232,396, 22.48% of day's volume, with a $1.7559 VWAP. The number and percentage of days volume seem reasonable. Sans the opening block the VWAP was below the day's $1.7639, reflecting, I think, the heavier selling pressure indicated by the sell + unknown percentages below.
Note the buy/sell percentage trend along with VWAP and larger trades groupings below. This suggests heavy selling all day. Combined with the short percentage being near the low end of my range (see below) it looks like there were a lot of intra-broker trades. With so many of the larger brokers having their own MM facilities it's not surprising. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:28 1100 $1.8500 $1.8900 $2,043.00 $1.8573 0.11% 72.73%
09:30 42609 $1.8100 $1.8900 $79,160.80 $1.8578 4.12% 45.53% Incl 09:30 $1.8900 18,613
09:42 139732 $1.7600 $1.8600 $251,094.24 $1.7970 13.52% 39.74% Incl 09:40 $1.8114 5,000 09:41 $1.7899 5,000
10:00 63064 $1.7800 $1.8290 $113,486.49 $1.7995 6.10% 47.45% Incl 09:55 $1.8200 4,350
10:45 283983 $1.7200 $1.8300 $502,144.48 $1.7682 27.48% 37.11% Incl 10:07 $1.8300 5,000 10:08 $1.8060 4,900
10:14 $1.7810 6,296 10:16 $1.8001 10,000
10:19 $1.7800 9,650 10:38 $1.7500 10,400
10:38 $1.7600 7,500 $1.7610 6,300
10:38 $1.7500 4,500 5,375
10:39 $1.7300 4,800 $1.7200 4,000 6,600
10:39 $1.7266 4,000 $1.7300 8,000
10:39 $1.7399 5,000
11:15 56512 $1.7450 $1.7700 $99,014.06 $1.7521 5.47% 36.85%
11:45 58050 $1.7501 $1.7800 $102,509.25 $1.7659 5.62% 37.88% Incl 11:21 $1.7700 25,000 11:42 $1.7600 6,631
13:00 71860 $1.7500 $1.7600 $126,057.22 $1.7542 6.95% 36.70% Incl 12:17 $1.7570 4,500 12:25 $1.7588 5,000
12:34 $1.7550 7,900 12:47 $1.7500 10,000
13:30 72531 $1.7200 $1.7550 $126,186.58 $1.7398 7.02% 35.24% Incl 13:06 $1.7500 4,623 4,156
13:33 $1.7400 18,515
13:45 37451 $1.7300 $1.7500 $65,196.50 $1.7408 3.62% 35.58% Incl 13:44 $1.7365 5,000 $1.7239 4,600
14:30 34099 $1.7300 $1.7400 $59,165.66 $1.7351 3.30% 35.66%
15:00 44223 $1.7239 $1.7400 $76,556.38 $1.7311 4.28% 36.18% Incl 14:34 $1.7300 4,600
15:54 95712 $1.6901 $1.7300 $163,581.01 $1.7091 9.26% 36.60% Incl 15:05 $1.7001 6,000 15:10 $1.6940 5,000
15:18 $1.7100 4,200
16:00 23402 $1.7150 $1.7500 $40,578.26 $1.7340 2.26% 37.55%
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 18.13% 6.97% -4.06% -7.94% -71.98%
Prior 1.27% 1.28% 23.13% 18.87% 403.97%
Since yesterday I had no confidence this was anything other than a short-term trader induced pop I'm not surprised by the reducing range and volume as the momo and day traders lock in their profits or reduce losses. I wouldn't be surprised if shorters helped compress this range as well, although the short percentage below is not excessive so it's likely there weren't that great a number of them.
On my minimal chart things look as one would expect - major divergence of the Bollinger band limits, and the newly added EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) already starting to roll the fast average over. I expect our low to hit the $1.67/70 price range, which I had identified as a potential resistance but which was irrelevant during the pop up. Given we blew right by it going up I won't be surprised to see us do the same going down unless volume gets extremely low before we encounter it.
Beyond that, the $1.59/60 and $1.53/4 supports, which have demonstrated some strength, will come into play bolstered by a new short-term rising support (not shown on the posted chart yet) that will be about $1.54 tomorrow and has a slope of ~$0.004/day. With an origin and four touches that held it suggests decent support. But three of the touches were low volume, meaning we can't really determine how strong it's likely to be. We also have a medium-term rising support (rising green line) that could come into play. Today it looks to be about $1.43 with a slope of ~+$0.0033/day.
A simple reversion to the mean of the span from the $1.45 low of 8/9 to the $1.97 high of 8/23 would suggest ~1.70, which we already touched on still-high but falling volume. This suggests we will move further down and I expect $1.57-$1.60 potential support will be tested within a couple days. The mid-point of the Bollinger band today is $1.56 and rising. I expect the rise to slow and we'll likely got to and below the mid-point, meaning we'll likely test the $1.53/4 support in the next week, barring any positive catalyst(s).
On my one-year chart, as with yesterday, I don't think it's yet worth discussing the SMAs and oscillators and such because everything is so far unfolding as expected with a re-trace on reducing volume under way. So the SMAs will be still rising while all the oscillators weaken.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3358 and $1.7934 ($1.3324 and $1.7528 yesterday) are diverging with a rising mid-point. But as with the other items for now there's not much faith in what's being shown now.
All in, I'm still short-term negative as nothing fundamental changed to cause the pop and we should return to near the prior trend, which was rising.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy, and the short percentage is at the lower end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage continues dropping, suggesting that what I suspected - no good reason for the pop would cause a quick start of a re-trace - is playing out.
The spread contracted, indicating the start of consolidation/re-trace, but is still wide. It suggests short-term down is most likely right now.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings couldn't make a fourth day of the best readings since I started tracking this, moving from 7 negatives and 17 positives to 8 negatives and 16 positives. This should continue for a few days at least. Change since 07/21 is $0.2776, 18.68%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.7499%, 0.7927%, 0.3806%, 0.5715%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, and 0.2227%.
All in, everything suggests the re-trace will continue near-term.
Bill
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