bigone thank you - Gold Passes A Major Milestone - by Tyler Durden Jul 30, 2016 4:28 PM
Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside -
The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional upside in the metal.
However, the above was merely a tactical, nearer-term call.
Strategically, it’s been even longer since we updated our longer-term framework for gold. In fact, it’s been three months since we did that in this post. In that May piece we suggested the metal continued to track favorably vs. our bullish expectations, but in the near-term it faced a major test having rallied nearly +25% off its Dec-15 low, a historical demarcation point whereby cyclical retracement rallies were either snuffed out with a resumption of a secular bear beginning afresh, or, the same moves continued higher, indicative of a new secular bull being underway.
Where do we now stand vs. that +25% demarcation point?
As of month-end today, gold is up over 27% from its Dec-15 lows.
This a major milestone – any time gold has managed a move of at least 25% off a major low, it has continued higher every single time with incremental gains ranging from 21%-412%, with the average totaling 175%.
In the chart below I’ve used the vertical, dotted green lines to show any month where gold closed at least 25% off a major low for the first time; the bright green annotations show the incremental upside for the metal until another major peak was put in place following these signals; the red annotations show that gold’s two major head-fake rallies off noteworthy lows – those being the 1993 and initial 1999 lows – never managed to get to +25% off those lows, stalling out just below +24% and +17%, respectively.
bigone thank you - Black Swans, Yellow Gold - ex. How gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation - by Michael J. Kosares