Replies to post #203056 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ADXS CC is a good listen for highlighting the differences between the ADXS-NEO approach and cell-based cancer therapies. (ADXS-NEO extracts multiple antigens from a biopsy of a patient's tumor, but it does not extract whole cells.)

Amusingly, the sell-side analyst from Janney asked if ADXS's "double-digit" royalty rate from AMGN is as much as 50%. (The actual upper bound hasn't been disclosed.)

[DewDiligence]

Re: ADXS-NEO milestone payments/triggers

Below are my guesses for the milestone triggers and amounts payable by AMGN with respect to the ADXS-NEO program:

• First patient dosed in phase-1: $10M

• Proof-of-concept established (at which time AMGN takes control of further clinical development): $40M

• FDA or EU approval for marketing (whichever comes first): $65M

• Commercial-sales thresholds (three tiers): $360M

We know from ADXS’ SEC filings (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1100397/000149315217000250/ex10-57.htm p.21-22) that: there are three development-based milestones, there are three sales-based milestones, and the total of all six potential milestone payments is $475M.

If the above is correct, then ADXS has earned (but not yet received) a $10M payment from AMGN for dosing the first patient in phase-1 (http://ir.advaxis.com/press-release/advaxis-announces-dosing-first-patient-adxs-neo-investigational-customized ).