Agree good summary of where things stand especially the comparision of other buyouts. I thought it was slightly misleading as they included producers in the list. DEZ was essentially producing when it was bought out. NG may be producing in 2007, but the bulk of their production won't come till 2010 and now Donlin looks to be tied up a bit. I think $60+ would be somewhat fair given that neither Donlin and Galore are permitted yet and both require quite a bit of cap ex That would imply a price around $25. I can't see Barrick going that high given their initial bid unless another bidder arrives. I would love to end up w/GG shares and I'd setttle for NEM. Right now I'm beginning to think NG will stay independent and the market will simply reject Barrick's offer. I'm not sure how much NG is shopping itself around as much as they're simply trying to stop Barrick. Management believes quite rightly that there's far more money to be made staying independent vs getting $25-30 max now.
If Donlin or Galore were closer to production (or simply fully permitted) I'd say that NG should sell more like $100-120/oz, but given the time value of money and uncertainty $60/oz would seem fair at stage of the game.
The market bid up NG today maybe thinking that ABX would increase their offer today when they announced earnings. I can't see a big pullback tomorrow based on no news, but if nothing emerges from another buyer I can't see going too much higher either without news.
I'm a little confused on why NG didn't play hardball ealier. If their hand is strong why give ABX an easy way out on Donlin let alone partial ownership of Galore. Also I wonder what their agreement is w/ABX w/respect to new drilling on Donlin if they'll get access or if they can't see the BFS until completed. I expect both Galore and Donlin to have substantial resource additions as they make their way to full feasibility. This is certainly an interesting saga. Time is on NG's side here.
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