Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 07/20 2016 EOD
I remain "strongly bullish" near-term but my unconventional stuff is less sanguine and suggest no near-term strength is
likely.
Today early volatility gave us a big spread and we retreated from above the new descending resistance the same day we penetrated, rather than holding and retreating the next day. However, all this was with a VWAP that was up ~6.3% from yesterday, so some profit-taking, loss reduction and loss avoidance could be expected I guess.
There were 35 pre-market trades totaling 6.9K ranging from $1.48 to $1.50
09:30-10:05 opened the day with a 4,692 buy for $1.48 & 100 sell $1.47 and then came 9:32's 6K $1.46/7, 9:33's 500 $1.47, 9:34's ~17.3K $1.47/8, 9:35's 1K $1.47, 9:37's 500 $1.48 and b/a became 3.7K:2.6K $1.46/8, and 9:38's 2K $1.48. B/a at 9:40 was 5.9K:2K $1.46/7. 9:41's 16.8K $1.46/7 left b/a at 9:42 9.8K:3.1K $1.47/8. Then came 9:43's 400 $1.48, 9:44's ~2.5K $1.4750/48, 9:45's 7K $1.4795/48, and 9:46's 100 $1.48 put b/a at 9.8K:2.8K $1.47/8. Then came 9:47's ~3.1K $1.47/8and 9:49's 5.6K $1.4750/$1.48 put b/a to 7.7K:2.9K $1.47/8. Then 9:50's 700 $1.4750/48 was followed by 9:52's 2K $1.4745, 9:53's 100 and b/a at 9:54 was 9.6K:2.7K $1.47/8. Things settled there and began very low/no-volume $1.47/8. 10:05's 1.2K $1.48/$1.4850 ended the period.
10:06-11:00, after one no-trades minute, began mostly low/no-volume, and some medium-volume, $1.47/9 on 10:07's ~7K $1.4850->$1.48->$1.49->$1.4899. Volume was interrupted by 10:33-:35's ~26.1K $1.47->$1.48->$1.47. At 10:11 b/a was 8K:6.5K $1.48/9, 10:15 9.3K:1.3K $1.47/8, 10:19 2.8k:3.3K $1.48/9, 10:29 700:3.9K $1.48/9, 10:39 7.1K:2.8K $1.47/8, 10:44 9.7K:1.4K $1.47/8. 10:52 put b/a to 2.5K:6.1K $1.48/9. 10:56 began very low/no-volume $1.4850/$1.49 and b/a at 10:57 was 3.4K:3.8K $1.48/9 and 11:00's 100 100 $1.4850 ended the period.
11:01-11:50, after four no-trades minutes, began mostly low, some no and medium, volume $1.49/50 on 11:04's 16.4K $1.49->$1.48->$1.50 and 11:05's ~11.2K $1.4950/$1.50. B/a at 11:17 was 1.2K:~6.7K $1.49/50, 11:29 900:~9.8K $1.49/50 and volume switched to very low/no-volume at 11:31. B/a at 11:36 4.5K:~7.9K $1.49/50. 11:50's 4K $1.50 ended the period.
11:51-11:53's, after a no-trades minute, did a fast volatile 11:51-:52 ~28.6K $1.50->$1.51->$1.52->$1.5101->$1.5150->$1.52->$1.51->$1.50->$1.51->$1.50->$1.49->$1.50->$1.4986.
11:54-12:20, after a no-trades minute, started a move down by first returning to very low/no-volume $1.50 through 12:05. B/a at 11:59 was 4.5K:1.2K $1.49/50. 12:06-:09 then did 27.9K $1.49->$1.48->$1.50, 12:11-:17 was low/no-volume $1.50 and the period ended on 12:18-:20's ~69.1K $1.49/50->$1.49->$1.49->$1.47.
12:21-14:07, after seven no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $1.48/9, with 12:27 b/a 21.8K:6.1K $1.47/9 and 12:28 b/a 1.9K:6K $1.48/9, on 12:28-:29's ~5.6K $1.48->$1.49 (100) and b/a went 2.1K:10.8K $1.48/9. B/a at 12:47 was 2.5K:9.9K $1.48/9, 13:08 1.2K:8.4K $1.48/9, 13:13 3.4K:5.2K $1.48/9, 13:48 1.7K:7.9K $1.48/9, 14:06 2K:25.7K $1.48/9 and 14:07's 3.4K $1.48 ended the period.
14:08-14:14 dropped on 14:08's 25K (incl. 11,993 block) $1.48->$1.47 (market sell order?) and 14:13's 38.7K $1.47->$1.46->$1.47. 14:14's 800 $1.47 ended the period.
14:15-15:39 began with b/a 6K:4.5K $1.46/7 and did a very low/no-volume climb back up doing 14:15's 11.1K $1.46/7 14:20-:22's 8.4K $1.46->7, 14:28's b/a move to 6.5K:1.4K $1.47/8, 14:33's 220 $1.48, and 14:34-:47's no-trades. 14:48's 250 $1.4744 left b/a at 14:51 at 15.6K:2K $1.47/8, 14:53 15.9K:1.4K $1.47/8. Volume was interrupted by 14:57's ~17K $1.47/$1.4750 and b/a went 3.6K:4.6K $1.47/8. At 15:12 b/a was 7.3K:4K $1.47/8, 15:25 8.5K:3K $1.47/8. 15:39's 11.4K $1.47/8 ended the period.
15:40-16:00 dropped when it began with b/a 2.7K:7.6K $1.47/8 and did 15:40's 7K $1.47->$1.46, 15:41's 5.7K $1.46/$1.4627 put b/a to 5.3K:1.2K $1.46/7, and very low/no-volume $1.46/$1.4699 began. B/a at 15:48 was 4.8K:4.2K $1.46/7, 15:55 3.7K:2.4K $1.46/7, 15:58 ~3.5K:2.2K $1.46/7. 15:59's xxx $x.xx/x and 16:00's 600 $1.46 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 22 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 167,504, 27.75% of day's volume, with a $1.4771 VWAP. As with yesterday, the count and percentage of volume seems "normal" and today the VWAP was again below the day's $1.4801 VWAP, suggesting more participation by non-retail traders/investors. "Larger larger trades" looks sort of normal too. I suspect some of those doing larger trades at yesterday's VWAP of $1.4469, when the day's buy percentage was much better than today's, were also doing them today, selling when larger trades VWAP was more than $0.03 higher. This seems supported by today's lousy buy percentage (ergo higher sell & "unknown" percentages).
Which, strangely enough, brings us to yesterday's discussion of the new descending resistance (but see below where it properly belongs). Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
08:59 6740 $1.4800 $1.5000 $10,094.00 $1.4976 1.12% 94.20%
10:05 89608 $1.4600 $1.4850 $131,913.45 $1.4721 14.84% 43.55% Incl 09:34 $1.4701 11,100 09:35 $1.4600 8,560
09:41 $1.4700 8,000
11:00 73395 $1.4700 $1.4900 $108,528.87 $1.4787 12.16% 38.96% Incl 10:13 $1.4800 5,300 10:15 $1.4773 5,000
10:33 $1.4740 4,000 5,000
10:34 $1.4765 6,145 10:35 $1.4730 8,000
11:50 84246 $1.4800 $1.5000 $126,043.79 $1.4961 13.96% 48.11% Incl 11:17 $1.4990 4,970
11:53 28426 $1.4900 $1.5200 $42,740.44 $1.5036 4.71% 46.45% Incl 11:53 $1.5000 6,136
12:20 98054 $1.4700 $1.5000 $145,495.71 $1.4838 16.24% 39.92% Incl 12:09 $1.5000 4,600 12:18 $1.4900 15,000
12:19 $1.4800 7,500 16,500 8,400
14:07 47935 $1.4800 $1.4900 $71,103.92 $1.4833 7.94% 39.41%
14:14 64700 $1.4600 $1.4800 $95,172.07 $1.4710 10.72% 34.55% Incl 14:08 $1.4700 11,993 14:13 $1.4700 6,700
14:13 $1.4700 6,100 8,400
15:39 72663 $1.4600 $1.4800 $106,799.87 $1.4698 12.04% 32.66% Incl 14:57 $1.4700 5,000 15:36 $1.4700 5,100
16:00 33701 $1.4600 $1.4700 $49,365.91 $1.4648 5.58% 31.88%
The buy percentage behavior essentially inverted yesterday's. Considering the new descending resistance on my minimal chart I guess it's not surprising, although I did say I expected us to be able to stay above it today and then fall back tomorrow. Well, you know what they say - timing the market is hard! :-)
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 8.82% 7.35% 2.70% 0.69% -41.98%
Prior -2.17% 2.29% -2.11% 2.22% -43.65%
on my minimal chart we had a pretty good day with higher OLHC (open, low, high, close) and VWAP was above the new descending line (yes, that doesn't belong in this section). It was on good, but descending volume, about which I had expressed concerns yesterday because yesterday's was such a large variation from our norms. However, seeing today's volume still well above the 10-day average of ~291K (and that includes yesterday's 1MM+ volume), I'm not yet ready to classify it as suggesting reducing strength. maybe something below will change my mind though.
Speaking of which, the next couple paragraphs are not as negative as they sound.
Recall I had described a new potential medium-term descending resistance and said { ... Two of the three touch points have volume over 1MM and suggest this could a strong resistance. ... Today it's $1.48 and it descends appx. $0.0048/day - call it 1/2 penny. } I went on to add { ... If so, what I'm thinking is we push above it tomorrow and then fall back the following day to begin a short reset before challenging it again. Today it's $1.48 and it descends appx. $0.0048/day - call it 1/2 penny. ... Of course, it may not act as I stated. A lot of that was based on lots of "unknowns", such as ... }
I got it partly right - we pushed above and fell back, but all on the same day, and neared my $1.53/4 target and the new line held as the close was below it, ~$1.475 today. My guess is we saw a quick one-day scalp by very active traders, maybe augmented by some less-hyperactive folks taking profits and cutting or avoiding losses. Looking at the intra-day for a couple days I think we can rule out MMs being short-term long and selling into strength as I don't see a lot of extended attractive covering price opportunities.
I mention these items because it suggests I had some parts of the coming behavior correctly assessed and other parts not. I like it when behavior matches my expectations because it indicates I'm correctly understanding what's happening. In today's case there's something I don't have a grasp on, or do but overlooked. Can't say I'll be able to identify what it was with so many moving parts though.
Anyway, the line drops about 1/2 penny a day so tomorrow it will be ~$1.47. Since we had volume down ~42% vs. the volume on the rise yesterday, we don't see a lot of strength exhibited to the downside.
I see we're "pushing" my experimental 13-period Bollinger upper limit. w seem to get 3-4 days of this behavior and begin a re-trace on the third or fourth day. However, the history I can see with any detail with occurrences are not long enough to assign a high degree of confidence.
Given that, I suspect we'll try to break above the new resistance again. I would not expect to get through it tomorrow though - I think we need to see continued reducing volume on sort of stable, but maybe gently weakening(?), price and then rising volume as we challenge again. Unusually for CPST, I don't think this will take as long as usual.
Given the above, it's certainly reasonable to expect we might challenge the former short-term resistance that's now potential support (rising green line), looking like ~$1.395 today and rising ~$0.009/day. since I think we are still in medium-term consolidation, but having exited short-term consolidation, I'm not sure what to think about it holding. having said that, for the period it has existed it has been tested many times and been penetrated only once on two consecutive days at a decision point.
Given that I think it's more likely to hold than not. And if it is tested and holds I think that's when we certainly move above the new medium-term descending resistance (you have added it to your chart, right? I gave origins and touch points so that you could).
Given all this (only!) I would remain strongly near-term bullish, but now I have to venture further into the weeds, as you know.
On my one-year chart, which yesterday had the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs rising, thanks to the rising today and not "just holding", which would have caused the 50-day to weaken a couple days. If we hold here, the 50-day will flatten for a day, fall a day and then begin a slow rise again. As usual, I doubt we'll just hold and the 10 and 20-day SMAs suggest we want to rise. But we know from the minimal chart there's some barriers to get around to do so.
The oscillators I watch, which all had large improvements yesterday as it confirmed the prior day's suggestion of a turn coming, had good improvement in everything Williams %R (but it may in fact be an improvement as it fell out of overbought) and accumulation/distribution, which continues well below neutral. Everything else is above neutral. In aggregate this seems to suggest, overall, continuation of the "strongly bullish" assessment.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2948 and $1.4545 ($1.3053 and $1.4316 yesterday) continue diverging with the rise in the mid-point also continuing thanks to the upper limit rising faster than the lower limit falling.
All in, I'll hold with my near-term "strongly bullish" considering just the conventional TA stuff.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but short percentage is below "normal" range (needs re-check) and buy percentage fell back into what's normal for this symbol. Nothing here suggesting really bad near-term behavior.
The spread widened to "excessive", thanks to high volatility early in the day setting the tone. Combined with fairly steady increasing weakness intra-day (VWAP and buy percentage - see intra-day breakdown above), this would suggest more near-term weakness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings remain unchanged and positive at 10 negatives and 14 positives. Change since 06/15 is $0.0538, 3.77%, and the averages over the rolling period seen in the last few days (latest first) is 0.195%, ~0.127%, 0.0091%, and -0.0047%. This is sending a reasonably positive longer-term signal for now.
All in, based on this experimental unconventional stuff we should expect no near-term substantial strength, at best, and would likely see ome weakness near-term. However, this is just short-term and does not sway me from my bullish stance using the conventional stuff.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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