I believe the short logic to go something like this:
Evidence suggests that Dan is not skilled enough to make a deal, OR BP has conducted DD and determined the science is not robust enough and they don't care. Therefore dilution is likely, and possibly eventually a zero. Lm Technology is an also-ran to PD-1 inhibitors and CAR-T therapy, and will not likely have a strong market share, if any.
I think they're wrong of course (combo therapy is the future), but that's the conclusion I've come to after months of thinking about it.