Replies to post #10390 on General Stock Ideas

[gfp927z]

SC, THLD keeps on chugging higher on big volume so it appears somebody knows something. I'm not that familiar with the company or their programs, but based on the stock movement and lack of available info, one starts to suspect some type of insider trading.

If so then an army of securities law firms will pounce since those outfits jump on anything these days, even when a company agrees to a buyout. While these firms are slimy, they do provide a needed service in keeping the biopharma corporate crooks on their toes. As Tarpley likes to say - when evil fights evil, society can sometimes benefit.

[gfp927z]

SC, I listened to the THLD presentation from June 7 (Jefferies Conference), and it's pretty interesting. The CEO seems extremely sharp and he reviewed the results from their full statistical analysis of the failed Phase 3 study.

It turns out they would have met statistical significance in the trial if 2 of the 600+ patients that had originally been randomized into the drug group hadn't dropped out prior to treatment and then returned to the trial, but then were randomized into the placebo group instead. The trial was designed as 'intent to treat', so these 2 patients had to be considered dropouts from the drug arm and therefore treatment failures, and this skewed the data just enough to barely miss statistical significance.

Several other oddities in the trial were 1) the unexpectedly long survival of patients in the control arm, and 2) the very high efficacy seen in the patients treated in Japan. It turns out that Orientals metabolize certain drugs differently than do Caucasians, and the Japanese patients showed very high levels of efficacy. He said that THLD is actively pursuing a partnership in Japan for the drug.

So that's one possibility that could explain the recent move in the stock, ie some progress on the Japanese partnership front.
With that type of info it would be difficult to prevent a fair number of people from realizing that something is up, and then the word leaks out to hedge funds and others, and the stock starts really moving. Just a guess though.

I was impressed with the CEO. I remember listening to their December conference call when the Phase 3 failed, but otherwise haven't followed the company. Their drug is a prodrug that is activated in the hypoxic conditions (low oxygen level) found in some types of tumors. Pretty interesting, and its clear the drug does have considerable activity, which helps validate the hypoxia approach, and the drug could have a decent chance of eventually getting approved in Asia.