I will be a regular reader. It's never easy guessing the markets in an election year, specially this late in the run. And I think you're right, but this time it's going to be real I feel. IMO I've noticed a change with guard at the fed in how they telegraph their rates game. For the last 10 years or so, the feds would not give any real clues about what they're thinking and everyone would be guessing and reacting to speculation.
Which to me is an artificial force allowing too much room for speculative games by big players and banks and such. But now, the feds are actually giving timelines and more distinct information which I think now forces big speculators to act according to an strongly projected 'actual' rate which narrows their playing field and doesn't really allow for too much artificial inflates or deflates for their spreads. To me, this should force the whole market to come back down to reality.
But that's my theory, as weird as it is.
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