Replies to post #1846 on Bausch Health Companies Inc (BHC)

[Trendliner]

AND IF MY GRANDMOTHER HAD WHEELS SHE WOULD HAVE BEEN A WAGON

Yes indeed, IF Ackman's bets pay off he will be rewarded handsomely. But the market, as it speaks its message today, suggests that the odds are against those outcomes.

Of course the market is not always right, not by a long shot. But that's not the issue. Rather, is the market, as a reflection of the aggregate wisdom of interested parties, generally more correct than any individual? The difficultly individuals have in beating the market over the long-term suggests that it is.

Of course there are exceptions. Even a monkey can seem to outwit the market over the short-term. Good luck trumps everything in a game whose outcomes are so dominated by randomness. But over a long enough period of time and a large enough number of decisions the monkey's wits or lack of same will be revealed. And yes there are individual exceptions. Warren Buffet has proven to be one, although, I use word "proven" in a provisional sense. That cases is far from having been made by Ackman.

For Ackman to break even on VRX the stock will have to go up several hundred percent. I've heard estimates of over 400%. He will be lucky to break even. His average shorting price on HLF is about 45 a share vs the current 59.

If this is genius, I will go with the Vanguard Index Fund. Or better yet I will use a simple momentum method and do a bit better. Imagine that, beating Ackman and it only takes 10 minutes a month.

Trendliner.

[IL Padrino]

If worms had machine guns then birds wouldn't eat them.