Replies to post #265548 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[cjgaddy]

Proforma Chart on Avid Revs/GrossProfitability Q4/FY16(fye 4-30-16)

From the 6-2-16 Corp. update PR ( http://tinyurl.com/zntvudj ):
Avid revs for FY16(fye 4-30-16) will be $44mm; since $25.6mm for 1st 3 qtrs, Q4 revs will be ~$18.4mm. Avid B/L currently $56M; guidance for FY17(fye 4-30-17) is $50-55mm. Avid II (Myford) is currently ramping up for runs for “3 current clients”. Peregrine is “in the process of designing a 3rd mfg. Facility focused on clinical manufacturing”; has already secured a 25,000sf location, and “expects the new clinical suite to be complete & ready for clinical mfg. by 1H/2017.” ...All this leads to Peregrine expecting, "future sustainable profitability for the company in 24 months".

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AVID PROFORMA – Based on 6-2-16 PR (FY16 Revs will be: $44mm)...
Updated PPHM REVS-BY-QTR TABLE, now thru FY16'Q4(fye 4-30-16), per the 6-2-16 Corp. update PR ( http://tinyurl.com/zntvudj ):
• Total Revs since May’06: ($173.2mm/Avid + $24.1mm/Govt + $2.5mm/Lic.) = $199.8mm
• 6-2-16: FY'17 (May'16-Apr'17) Avid revs guidance raised to $50-55mm.
• Avid’s Gross-Profit over last 4 qtrs ending 4-30-16: $21.1mm on revs of $44.0mm (GP%=48%)
• Recall, Avid Rev$ from Gov’t DTRA Contract work (6/30/08 – 4/15/11, totaling $24.15mm), went into GOVT-REVS, not AVID-REVS, in the Financials.
Avid’s website: http://www.avidbio.com

  
 AVID PROFITABILITY (GROSS*) BY QTR:  
 QTR              Avid-Rev$  CostofMfg$  Gross-Profit$   GP% 
 FY13Q1  7-31-12  4,135,000   2,024,000      2,111,000   51% 
 FY13Q2 10-31-12  6,061,000   3,703,000      2,358,000   39% 
 FY13Q3  1-31-13  6,961,000   3,651,000      3,310,000   47% 
 FY13Q4  4-30-13  4,176,000   3,217,000        959,000   23% 
 FY14Q1  7-31-13  4,581,000   2,670,000      1,911,000   42% 
 FY14Q2 10-31-13  7,354,000   4,195,000      3,159,000   43% 
 FY14Q3  1-31-14  3,885,000   2,416,000      1,469,000   38% 
 FY14Q4  4-30-14  6,474,000   3,829,000      2,645,000   41% 
 FY15Q1  7-31-14  5,496,000   3,583,000      1,913,000   35% 
 FY15Q2 10-31-14  6,263,000   4,139,000      2,124,000   34% 
 FY15Q3  1-31-15  5,677,000   3,113,000      2,564,000   45% 
 FY15Q4  4-30-15  9,308,000   4,758,000      4,550,000   49% 
 FY16Q1  7-31-15  9,379,000   4,608,000      4,771,000   51% 
 FY16Q2 10-31-15  9,523,000   4,741,000      4,782,000   50% 
 FY16Q3  1-31-16  6,672,000   3,896,000      2,776,000   42% 
 FY16Q4  4-30-16 18,400,000   9,600,000      8,800,000   48% 
  
 FY13 TOTAL:     21,333,000  12,595,000      8,738,000   41%* 
 FY14 TOTAL:     22,294,000  13,110,000      9,184,000   41%* 
 FY15 TOTAL:     26,744,000  15,393,000     11,151,000   42%* 
 FY16 TOTAL:     44,000,000  22,800,000     21,200,000   48%* 
  
 *Avid Net-Profit (ie, incl. Selling, G&A) not split out from PPHM-Corp. in the financials. 
 .  
 PPHM REVENUES (in thousands)              DEFERRED    
                  -------REVENUES-------   REVENUES  INVEN-    
 Quarter          Avid  Govt Lic.  TOTAL  Avid Govt  TORIES 
 FY07Q1  7-31-06   398     0   23    421   317    0    971  
 FY07Q2 10-31-06   636     0   48    684  1388    0   1899  
 FY07Q3  1-31-07   347     0   16    363  2202    0   1325  
 FY07Q4  4-30-07  2111     0  129   2240  1060    0   1916  
 FY08Q1  7-31-07  1621     0    4   1625  1820    0   2363  
 FY08Q2 10-31-07  1863     0   29   1892  1338    0   3500  
 FY08Q3  1-31-08  1662     0   13   1675  1434    0   2394  
 FY08Q4  4-30-08   751     0  150    901  2196    0   2900  
 FY09Q1  7-31-08  1193   324    0   1517  4021  980   4628  
 FY09Q2 10-31-08   983   958    0   1941  6472 1701   6700  
 FY09Q3  1-31-09  5778  1048    0   6826  4805 3262   5547  
 FY09Q4  4-30-09  5009  2683  175   7867  3776 3871   4707  
 FY10Q1  7-31-09  2070  4671    9   6750  5755 2332   6177  
 FY10Q2 10-31-09  5308  1510   78   6896  4260 3989   5850  
 FY10Q3  1-31-10  2945  6854   78   9877  3052   76   3861  
 FY10Q4  4-30-10  2881  1461   78   4420  2406   78   3123  
 FY11Q1  7-31-10   983  2111  115   3209  3719   47   4692  
 FY11Q2 10-31-10  3627   966   78   4671  2447   35   3555  
 FY11Q3  1-31-11  1922   882   79   2883  4300   40   3915  
 FY11Q4  4-30-11  1970   681   78   2729  5617    0   5284  
 FY12Q1  7-31-11  5439     0  216   5655  4145    0   4481  
 FY12Q2 10-31-11  4154     0   78   4232  2012    0   3178  
 FY12Q3  1-31-12  3203     0   78   3281  2552    0   2722  
 FY12Q4  4-30-12  1987     0   78   2065  3651    0   3611  
 FY13Q1  7-31-12  4135     0  116   4251  6056    0   5744  
 FY13Q2 10-31-12  6061     0   78   6139  6221    0   5426  
 FY13Q3 1-31-13   6961     0   78   7039  5061    0   4635  
 FY13Q4 4-30-13   4176     0   78   4254  4171    0   4339  
 FY14Q1 7-31-13   4581     0  107   4688  4164    0   5679  
 FY14Q2 10-31-13  7354     0    0   7354  3468    0   4033  
 FY14Q3  1-31-14  3885     0    0   3885  4329    0   5224  
 FY14Q4  4-30-14  6474     0    0   6474  5241    0   5530  
 FY15Q1  7-31-14  5496     0    0   5496  4670    0   5998  
 FY15Q2 10-31-14  6263     0   37   6300  3612    0   5379  
 FY15Q3  1-31-15  5677     0    0   5677  5752    0   6148  
 FY15Q4  4-30-15  9308     0    0   9308  6630    0   6148  
 FY16Q1  7-31-15  9379     0  292   9671  8291    0  10457 
 FY16Q2 10-31-15  9523     0    0   9523  9688    0  12554  
 FY16Q3  1-31-16  6672     0   37   6709 15418    0  15189 
 FY16Q4  4-30-16 18400     0    0  18400    ??    0     ?? 
 Totals:        173186 24149 2453 199788 <=since5/1/2006