Replies to post #121628 on NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[loanranger]

I'm afraid my view of the probability of a material bullish event occurring within 3 and 6 months isn't a very enlightened one. Except when asked stuff like "Will the sun come up tomorrow?" or something equally predictable I usually go with 50/50. Who knows what the future holds?
In this case we know what the past has shown and it has shown it quite clearly...there have been very few, if any, points in the past when someone asked to do what you're asking me to do would have been wrong if they guessed a zero percent likelihood. The one that stands out in my memory that could have been predicted was the company's entry into the Russell 2000...the market cap at the time strongly suggested the possibility. No such event is likely at this point. I don't have the technical skills required, from a purely scientific standpoint, to evaluate the likelihood of price moving news coming out of the current tests.
With that as my knowledge base I'd say the chances of a material bullish event occurring within in 3 and 6 months to be somewhere between zero and 50/50.

Obviously from a scientific standpoint I don't come close to meeting this standard: "a very disciplined analyst who is able to synthesize public information better than virtually any fundamental analyst". I think that may be what you're looking for with this question and you need to keep looking. I'm not offering any real analysis here, just an awareness of the history of the kind of news that the market can really sink its teeth into and there's been little of that of a positive nature here (ever)....but that shouldn't be a revelation and no invoice will follow :o)

[leifsmith]

That is an excellent question. Completely novel technologies are full of unknowns, and not all of them are bad. How can anyone, even a researcher on a project, predict when an event will occur that will open a door? Suppose, for example, that the world is threatened by an unexpected virus, but it happens, and no one could have foreseen it, that the threatening virus is similar to one already studied, and with positive results. Who can calculate a probability that such a thing may happen, and if it does, a probability that the coincidence may or may not be followed by events good for the company? And if they can do it, how do they do it?

So, the production of such numbers is puzzling, but they do have a use: they can affect the price of a stock.

In light of that, I would like everyone watching NNVC to know that, based on the thinking of a group of very smart people, the chance that the company will issue surprising and strongly positive news within a month is 80%. To arrive at this number we have employed one of Ramanujan's unpublished formulas.