I did an analysis of AMD's chances here. It boilded down to this:
1) What are the chances of AMD actually telling the truth? 2) What are the chances of AMD actually delivering on a promise? 3) What are the chances of AMD meeting a schedule? 4) What are the chances of GloFo getting a process working on time? 5) What are the chances of AMD bringing up a new extremely complex design on a new unproven process at an unreliable foundry?
The actual list has 4 or 5 more entries but it's essentially our version of the Drake Equation.