we only get approx 1/3 of those barrels it the total is 150mm then 50mm barrels at $4 (?) is 200 mm we may 50mm shares out by then so $4-$8 per share is more likely but still a nice bump
Tryoty, Maybe! But drilling all prospects might take years. I've been in this stock for 14 years and IMO even if they strike oil in the first well in Kenya is not going to help a lot. In case they drill dry hole you can walk away from this stock. Again this is just my opinion.
Not even close. 15 dollars is absurd. Proved reserves weren't selling for 15 dollars when oil was 100. This well is targeting 66. Current price being paid is about 5. And it would take years and a lot of luck to prove 600. Unrisked means every single well in the entire block has to hit to get to 600. 50% would be phenomenal for risked. Plus ERHC will own under 15% after Kenya takes their share. 15% of 300 leaves about 45 million in ERHC reserves. And I would expect at least 75 million shares outstanding at best. 225 in market cap with 75 million shares gives an extremely optimistic price of $3 per share in a 3 or 4 years if everything goes perfectly. But we know damn well it won't.
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