Replies to post #8496 on Addax Petroleum (fka AXC)

[Opus X]

I am not an expert but I don't think you can value oil at $60/barrel for your estimated valuation of ERHE. I believe a number between $10 to $15 is more appropriate for confirmed, contingent upon overall market prices, transportation costs, type of oil, etc.

Take your estimated valuation and divide by 4 or 5 or 6 for a more realistic shot at it.

[jsc52033]

yes but I really like you number better then mine. However I realistically expect to see $3 area if we do hit the magical 600 million. There is the long term waiting period to extract and deliver. Deep discounts will come into play.ie time value of money and at what rate.Tofday interest is very low but suddenly risk capital may demand 20-25% returns not the 3-4% so factor in 3 years to get you cash back and where will we really be? then there is the bigger question what is the sum of all the parts then worth. Kenya, JDZ is it really dead, EEX, and the thing in Chad does that actually have a capped well?. Add in the forward price of oil to date of production minus the costs and cost of capital to effectuate that outcome.
Sharper pencils them mine will give us an answer which will look like a take t or leave it and wait 5 more years.

[sneak-attack]

Kenya pipeline will be fully operational in 2021.

Sneak