Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/17 2016 EOD
In aggregate, the mixed indicators, both conventional and unconventional I use, leave me undecided but leaning towards short-term weakness. But that's my bias anyway right now and I don't have enough consistency in the stuff I look out to make me believe strongly that my bias is correct.
So I'm going neutral for the moment.
There was another well-timed PR about Capstone Receives 1MW Order for District Heating Application in Northwest Italy.
This gave us an early typical "open high", hitting $1,45 at 9:58, and went lower 9:59-10:16, hitting $1,41. Then very low/no-volume $1.41/2 through 10:45 was followed by a series of mostly low/medium-volume intermittent steps up to $1.47 at 11:12. Sideways mostly $1.45/6, interrupted by a couple minutes that hit $1.47 and a couple that hit $1.44/5, followed through 13:04. 13:05 dropped down a notch to do very low/no-volume $1.44/5 through 13:48. Range then dropped 13:49-:51 to $1.41 (new intra-day low) to begin very low/no-volume $1.41/2 through the day's end, interrupted by 15:10-:18's drop to $1.39/$1.41 and 15:30-54's $1.40/1, and ended the day at $1.42, below the minimal chart's rising support/resistance (lower rising orange line).
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:12 opened the day with a 2,737 sell for $1.39, did 9:31's 100 $1.43, 9:33's 9.6K $1.43/4, 9:35's 1.5K $1.4264/$1.43, 9:37's 200 $1.43, 9:38's 100 $1.44, 9:40's 1.8K $1.4201, 9:42's 1.9K $1.4276, 9:44's 7.5K $1.4215/$1.4263, 9:47's 110 $1.43, $1.49's 2.5K $1.4224, 9:50's 1.4K $1.4150/$1.42, 9:51's 5K $1.4268/$1.44, 9:52's 400 $1.4/$1.4440, and 9:53's 1K $1.4302 finally produced some stability as very low/no-volume $1.42/4 began. There were a couple low-volume excursions to $1.4450/$1.45 and the low volume was interrupted too by 10:09's 6K $1.44. 10:11-:12's 707 $1.43 ended the period.
10:12-10:47, after three no-trades minutes, began low-volume $1.41/2 (mostly $1.41 & $1.41xx) on 10:16's 900 $1.41/2 drop and ended the period on 10:47's 800 $1.4230.
10:48-11:29 began moving up on 10:48's 1.3K $1.42->$1.44, did 10:49's 550 $1.42/$1.4201, 10:51's 2.2K $1.42->$1.4398, 10:52's 200 $1.44, and finally settled in on 10:53-:57's $1.43/4 on very low/no-volume but for 10:55's ~11.2K $1.43/4. 11:01-:03's $1.45->$1.4598 made the next step up and tried to do it again on 11:12's 860 $1.44->$1.47 but couldn't hold and came back to $1.44/6. It did succeed on 11:21's 800 $1.45/6 in moving the low range to $1.45 and then 11:29's 200 $1.47 ended the period.
11:30-13:04 began low/no-volume $1.45/6 on 11:30's 350 $1.46, 11:33's ~3.2K $1.47->$1.45, and 11:38's 5.4K $1.46->$1.45. The behavior was interrupted by 11:58's 5.7K $1.46->$1.44 and 12:01's 300 $1.44/5. The period ended on 13:04's 182 $1.45.
13:05-13:48 began very low/no-volume $1.44/5 on 13:05's 1.7K $1.44/6 and ended the period on 13:48's 100 $1.45.
13:49-15:08 began very low/no-volume $1.41/2 on 13:49-:51's ~7.5K $1.44->$1.43->$1.41/2 (new intra-day low). The low volume was interrupted by 14:20's 10.7K $1.41/2 and 14:46-:48's ~17.4K $1.41/2. The period ended on 15:08's 200 $1.42.
15:09-15:54, after a no-trade minute, kicked off the EOD volatility a bit early when it began low/medium-volume $1.39/$1.40 with 15:10's 14:3K $1.41->$1.39, moved back up on 15:19's ~2.7K $1.41/2 and began medium, turning in just a few minutes to low, volume there, dropped back to $1.40/1 on 15:30's 100 $1.40, and finally settled in on low volume at $1.40/1. The low volume was interrupted by 15:50's 14.4K $1.40/1. The period ended on 15:54's 200 $1.41.
15:55-16:00 began low-volume $1.41/2 on 15:55's 700 $1.41/2 and ended the period and day on the closing 2,311 sell for $1.42.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>= 5K & 1 4K+) totaling 62,873, 26.79% of day's volume, with a $1.4207 VWAP. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:12 47432 $1.3900 $1.4500 $67,776.70 $1.4289 20.21% 53.85% Incl 09:33 $1.4301 5,000 10:09 $1.4399 6,000
10:47 9250 $1.4100 $1.4230 $13,079.90 $1.4140 3.94% 52.56%
11:29 21624 $1.4200 $1.4700 $31,211.35 $1.4434 9.22% 54.92% Incl 10:55 $1.4400 9,200
13:04 28934 $1.4400 $1.4700 $42,058.26 $1.4536 12.33% 53.04% Incl 11:38 $1.4580 4,900
13:48 5375 $1.4400 $1.4550 $7,778.39 $1.4471 2.29% 51.99%
15:08 59012 $1.4100 $1.4400 $83,635.60 $1.4173 25.15% 44.30% Incl 14:20 $1.4100 10,000 14:47 $1.4199 5,000
14:48 $1.4101 5,000
15:54 56208 $1.3900 $1.4200 $78,978.92 $1.4051 23.95% 47.38% Incl 15:11 $1.3900 8,306 15:50 $1.4100 9,467
16:00 3702 $1.4100 $1.4200 $5,247.13 $1.4174 1.58% 47.60%
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.14% 0.72% 0.68% 2.16% 59.71%
Prior 2.84% 2.22% 1.39% -2.11% -23.94%
On my minimal chart we confirmed the break below the rising support/resistance (lower rising orange line) and have now three days of intra-day penetrating above the rising support/resistance and closing at or below (yesterday and today). Today's PR-boosted volume did get a rise above the line a bit larger, percentage-wise, than the prior two days but I'm thinking no three-day pop effect is likely since we came back below the line.
Setting aside my pessimism, the increase in volume on an up day probably offers enough hope for an up trend to get some folks to support the ATM activities by "buying" shares at elevated levels.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs continue to decline. The 10-day should start to flatten if price range holds where it's at. The 50-day flattened out now. If price range holds it will be essentially flat for a couple weeks. Of course, price range is very likely to make some kind of move during that period so I doubt we'll see it remain flat for too long.
The oscillators I watch all improved marginally excepting ADX-related and full stochastic. All but Williams %R are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3430 and $1.5786 ($1.3148 and $1.6483 yesterday) continue converging but are moving towards the limits going parallel now. As mentioned yesterday, I think this is suggesting some kind of a break soon. Out range is right around the Bollinger mid-point and our close just a few cents below it. So no suggestion of direction is available based on range/mid-point relationship.
All in, I have to go neutral based on the conventional TA. Factoring in the number of larger trades, guesstimated at "typical", and percentage of day's volume which is also "typical", while considering the volume increase, I think we have weakness indicated.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and short percentage is well above my desired range (needs re-check). Buy percentage is about where it tends to hover, suggesting no sustainable appreciation near-term.
The spread is essentially flat compared to yesterday and still a bit too wide. Having been generated by our typical rise early and then weaken for most of the rest of the day and set lower intra-day lows, I'm viewing it as strongly negative.
VWAP movement now has thirteen negative and six positives in the last nineteen readings. Today's change was so small as to be near inconsequential though. Considering the PR had such apparently little effect I'm not considering this a positive today.
All in, none of my unconventional stuff gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling. My tendency is to go negative, but I'll just go neutral here - just enough marginally positive items (VWAP, buy % close to 50%, marginally smaller spread) to keep me from thinking the short/buy percentage disparity in movements is telling the whole story. But if I had to lay money on direction I'd favor near-term weakening.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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