Replies to post #103581 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[zerohedge]

N -

I don't see any reason to do anything. It's just a really sad deal for guys who don't want to see it for what it is. So you do a "demonstration farm" well these couldn't possibly sell $400 million USD in fish - and certainly not these side business deals. gotta imagine that sure they built some stuff but they explicitly don't own any of it. there are CJV's but no cash flow - so without the ability to do debt service they can only sell shares of stock. consulting was probably OK last year when they offloaded stock at $15 (with a high share price they could show revenue) except last Q they did $1.8MM income probably because they were locked out of deals and a falling share price - so maybe consulting died, too. in order to sell something (spinoff) you first have to have legal ownership. just no proof of ownership here. that's why there's no need to "out" anybody on a conference call. this goose looks already cooked, pending further investigation. even the MEGA deal died and without real ownership of the RAS "technology" we are again not going to make money beyond whatever is collected as a developer fee. awaiting actual proof and technology proof and related peer review CSO proof. if the consulting was based on raising money for MEGA which seems likely, then there's no consulting revenue either without a capital raise - to pay themselves from - so without that the whole company dies. if the RAS deal proves real then they maybe get a license fee. without that it's probable we have a disaster. if they sell a ton of stock here to fund MEGA then they are selling stock at 1X earnings (as defined by them) to collect consulting revenue earned by investing in MEGA which they don't own. more and more likely this is the case. waiting for earnings and then the conference call. the new CFO should have a lot of answer for and hopefully they have all three CFO's on the call with the CSO.

ZH

[RealDutch]

Why not buy a few thousands to tell the market "I believe"

That did wonders when Bertil paid $10.10 for the stock in late January, right. I said back then, they have to buy a lot or none at all. And they can't buy a lot.

Nope. They have to do the things we discussed. Give guidance, do timely CC's en tell us how much money they need. Although the latter could be problematic if they still have to negotiate a deal.

And then we take a look at the MF. I did a quick recalc yesterday and it will generate close to $10 EPS in 2021, conservatively. Down from $17 before we got all the delays. So it's still looking good.

As for the rest, the market will take the stock where it wants to. There is nothing anyone can do about it. It's a sector thing. But the crucial aspect is, I hope we can make some money elsewhere should SIAF drop to $4 before it jumps to $10, $20 etc.