until it isn't. why do people fail to see why the market remains resilient? IT IS ALL ABOUT THE FED. MONETARY POLICY. CODDLING THE MARKETS!!!!!! we should already be a 1.5% on interest rates,but we are stuck at .25-.50 with no raise in sight because it will "spook" the bull market which is 100% artificial.
major rounding top in S&P 500 with do or die at 1872.
sell signal is any close above 18000 on DOW and 2100 on Sp 500.
election year will have dire consequences on earnings over next several quarters. take Leap Year out of 1st qtr and most companies miss. no leap day next year :(
minimum wage hikes, lower profit margins, higher unemployment to com no matter who is elected, however, if Clinton wins, you can kiss bull market goodbye for good.
BREXIT should happen and I hope it does. Dollar should continue higher and oil will likely peak out at $48-$55 once major seasonality issues pass, it goes back down to mid $30's.
banks are fucked both ways, low interest and low oil. The saddest thing is that the market believes high oil is a good thing, it is and it isn't, once it breaks $80-100 it is bad again for stocks consumers, below $50 is obviously bad for banks and oil companies. over $120 is really bad and under $30 leads to bankruptcies ad consumers are saving not spending, trust me, I follow retail daily, it is not picking up and April and May will show that the data is far below what analysts expect. the consumer is fed up with wall street and politics, thus A socialists, a criminal, and a billionaire business man are 3 last standing candidates. we all know that the socialist wont win, Clinton is being investigated by 147 FBI agents, and no matter anyone says, Trump continues to gain traction which is great.
so, unless the FED hikes, the markets have no organic growth to make new highs and if the FED hikes, we will be making new lows for the year, just not sure when. I firmly believe that Dow 15000 is reasonable price and S&P 500 around 1750 to 1825 is fair value.
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