Right-wing polling of Florida paints the bleakest of pictures for Donald Trump in November, and it's probably accurate, at least for now. Naturally, the candidates have to have their conventions, pick their running mates, run the gauntlet of a campaign that will last for about 120 days, and see what they can do by why of inspiring organizers to get out in the field to work for them. Things will happen both here at home and in the wider world that could change how the public views their choices.
But...
Donald Trump currently doesn't stand a chance in Florida and it's just as likely to get worse for him than it is to get better.
A couple of things are really working against Trump. The first is that Hillary Clinton already has net negative numbers in the Sunshine State, and yet she's still absolutely crushing him. It's pretty unlikely that Trump can drive her negatives a whole lot higher, so he's got to do something first and foremost with his gonorrhea-like popularity with key Florida voting blocs.
The second thing is that she's disciplined and he's not. When you combine this with the comparative immutability of her approve/disapprove numbers, it's clear that Trump is both more likely to make mistakes and more likely to pay a substantial price for them.
Now, it's true that Trump could still win without Florida, but that would require an acrobatic feat like somehow winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. That would give him the near-bare minimum of 271 Electoral College votes.
And, let's face it, some of the reasons that Trump is doing so poorly in Florida would also screw him in other states. His abysmal rating with Latinos would certainly hamper his ability to win in Colorado, and probably Virginia as well. His crap numbers with suburban women would cause big problems not only in Virginia, but also in Ohio. And I just think New Hampshire is a lost cause for him even if he somehow manages to find some other winning combination.
I know that you can find contrary polling (Rasmussen, for example)...
rooster, 3Saints, dropdeadfred, DrHarleyboy, et al, with your heads up your kazoos you disagree .. tell us what you think BooMan has wrong in that piece .. and why ..
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