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trader53

05/04/16 4:14 AM

#86129 RE: trader53 #86080

S&P 500 - for Wednesday, May 4, 2016

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/

Tuesday Update

Posted on May 3, 2016



LONG TERM: Bear Market Rally

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be underway

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -140


The market gapped down at the open
for the first time since early April.

The decline came within three points
of Friday’s SPX 2052 low
before the market rebounded.

The rebound fell one point shy
of the SPX 2070 gap down opening level.

This kind of action
did not usually occur during the two month uptrend.

As noted in the weekend update,
the NDX/NAZ are currently
probably the least noisiest indices
due to their limited exposure to energy and commodities.

They are both suggesting
a general market downtrend is underway.


As a result
we are posting a tentative green Major wave B label

at the SPX 2111 high.

Short term support
is back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots,
with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

Short term momentum
hit oversold during today’s initial decline,
bounced to neutral during the rally,
and ended the day just below neutral.

Trade what’s in front of you!



S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Hourly)



S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Daily)













* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms


LONG TERM: Bear Market Rally

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be underway

* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011

* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015

* Primary Wave V - Failed


















* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms





































LONG TERM: Bear Market Rally

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be underway

* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011

* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015

* Primary Wave V - Failed








Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1