Normally, I wouldn't pick this part of a tech post to comment on, as all your tech thoughts are in line with my thinking.
But, this point, " Adding to oil is the dollar. Dollar could go down a bit more, but that's going to cause turmoil for the Yen and Japan which will cause turmoil for everyone else as well. "
The currency wars are out of my depth for understanding, but I do feel there will be a move coming from Japan, and / or CHINA.
CHINA is in very very deep Debt acceleration now, which is very worrisome to many.
China is now up to to 234% debt to GDP, but it's the pace of the debt accumulation that has so many worried.
I think there could be a move by Japan, which probably wouldn't surprise, or China, that could create a clarity on just how propped up those economies are. The exposure to Chinese debt by foreign markets is heightened more than ever now as well.
Any thoughts?