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EZ2

04/26/16 10:28 AM

#111858 RE: timhyma #111857

China imposes fresh curbs on commodities as iron ore, steel slide

REUTERS 3:33 AM ET 4/26/2016

* Dalian iron ore falls 6 pct, Shanghai rebar down nearly 4 pct

* Coking coal, coke and cotton well off day's peaks

* China has moved this week to crack down on price surge
(Adds latest transaction fee changes, details)

By Ruby Lian and Manolo Serapio Jr

BEIJING/MANILA, April 26 (Reuters) - Chinese commodities exchanges stepped up efforts on Tuesday to curb surging prices that some say have been driven by speculators, raising fears of another derivatives bubble after last year's stock market collapse.

Transaction fees for iron ore futures were hiked for a second time in as many days, after the original increase led to a sharp drop in iron ore and steel futures in China that helped cool a week-long surge in local commodities markets.

Base metals futures also fell on Tuesday, while other commodities, including coking coal and cotton, surrendered most of their early gains to end nearly flat.

China's top commodity exchanges in Dalian, Shanghai and Zhengzhou increased trading margins and fees in response to last week's spike in prices and volumes, which some analysts said were not matched by fundamentals for the underlying commodities.

The Dalian Commodities Exchange in northeast China said it would raise transaction fees for iron ore and polypropylene futures contracts twice in two days this week.

The exchange said on Tuesday it would also hike transaction fees for coke and coking coal futures contracts starting from April 27.

The most traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian exchange closed down 6 percent at its exchange-set floor of 450.50 yuan ($69.35) a tonne. It hit 502 yuan on Monday, its strongest since August 2014.

Analysts say the spike was largely due to speculators betting that a rise in infrastructure spending in China would lift raw material prices, which have been battered for years by a broad-based glut.

But analysts warned that the rise could flip into an equally precipitous fall.

"The speculation-driven futures rallies are not sustainable, and consolidation may have some spillover effects on the spot market," Argonaut Securities'Helen Lau said in a note.

News that China's top steel making province would ban the reopening of steel mills previously ordered to shut down also weighed on sentiment for commodities used in steel making, which include iron ore, coking coal and coke.


SHORTAGE OF SOME MATERIALS

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar - reinforced steel used in construction - fell 3.8 percent to close at 2,554 yuan a tonne.

Rebar reached a 19-month high of 2,787 yuan on April 21, when its turnover was worth nearly 50 percent more than the total value of trade on the Shanghai stock exchange.

The exchange said late on Tuesday that it would reduce night-time trading hours on rebar , hot-rolled coil and bitumen futures contracts, which are among the most heavily traded on the exchange.

Night trading hours for all three contracts will be from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m., compared with 9 p.m. to 1 a.m. previously, beginning on May 3.

Open interest in iron and rebar has fallen sharply, suggesting some trades are being executed by investors holding short positions that are getting squeezed.

Coking coal on Dalian closed nearly flat at 797.50 yuan a tonne after hitting a contract-high of 837.50 yuan earlier. Coke trimmed gains to 0.4 percent after rising as much as 4 percent. The two had soared by their 6 percent limit on Monday.

Cotton on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also closed little changed after spiking as much as 3.6 percent.

The exchange said on Tuesday it would hike transaction fees for cotton futures to 6 yuan ($0.92) per lot from 4.3 yuan, starting from Wednesday.

It will also raise the margin and widen the trading limit on the petrochemical PTA futures contract from April 27, the exchange added.

Jin Tao, analyst with Guotai Jun'an Futures in Shanghai, said there was a "severe shortage" of coking coal and coke following shutdowns of mines and plants in China last year as steel mills step up production.

That has fuelled a big spike in spot prices of the two raw materials, particularly this month, said Jin.

"Whether the rally can be sustained will depend on whether the government will keep reining in the sector. But falling forward contracts suggest investors remain cautious on the outlook," he said. ($1 = 6.4958 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr.; Additional reporting by Ruby Lian in Shanghai and Megha Rajagopalan in Beijing; Editing by Will Waterman and Mike Collett-White)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2016. Click For Restrictions - about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp
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EZ2

04/26/16 11:07 AM

#111869 RE: timhyma #111857

BP: Are Investors Already Banking on a Cash Flow Recovery?

MARKETWATCH 11:05 AM ET 4/26/2016

There was good news and bad news buried in BP(BP.LN)'s first-quarter cash flow figures (http://www.wsj.com/articles/ bp-reports-first-quarter-pretax-loss-1461651961). The good news: things may be getting better. The bad news: it doesn't look good yet.

Oil and gas investors are focused on cash in the oil price slump for good reason: it pays the bills, notably for their dividends, and is less prone to be whipped about by accounting charges than profits.

BP's cash flow figures are hardly straightforward. It reported first-quarter operating cash flow of $1.9 billion. The company suffered an unusually large outflow of cash related to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill: adding that back gives BP's own "underlying" figure of $3 billion. Adjust for movements in working capital, which tend to be volatile quarter- to-quarter but even out longer term, and the first-quarter haul was about $3.8 billion.

It isn't surprising that is weaker than any quarter last year, given oil's first-quarter average price of $34 a barrel. But with lower investment spending, at $3.9 billion, BP's cash shortfall has improved quarter-on-quarter, even if free cash flows remain far short of covering shareholders' dividends.

BP's balancing act (http://www.wsj.com/articles/oils-race-to-the-bottom-can-bp-keep-up-1454420730) is harder than most. It plans to cover payments related to the oil spill through asset sale proceeds, a prop most peers are using to fund dividends: the fund that was previously covering these payments is now exhausted.

Still, with costs falling (http://www.wsj.com/articles/bp-to-cut-about-4-000-exploration-and-production-jobs- 1452605175) and investment being pruned, the U.K. group thinks it can cover investment and dividends through operating cash flow next year at $50 to $55 a barrel, above current prices but below its previous target.

There are problems, aside from the cash flow uplift required to meet that goal. The first is that cuts to investment still seem to be doing the lion's share of the work in bringing that break-even oil price down. BP said spending this year would be about $17 billion. It could slice another $2 billion from its previous guidance range for next year of $ 17-19 billion if oil prices stay at current levels, but concedes that wouldn't be ideal. The cuts have gone into muscle and are approaching bone.

The second is that the market is running ahead of the company in balancing the books. Consensus forecasts for this year (and next) already had investment below $17 billion, according to FactSet. Analysts at Deutsche Bank(DBK.XE) argue that many European oil stocks are already pricing in a 2017 oil price of $55-60 a barrel.

If improving cash flows are already baked into stock prices, it sets BP and others a high bar for making progress this year.

Write to Helen Thomas at helen.thomas@wsj.com (mailto:helen.thomas@wsj.com)

-Helen Thomas; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-26-161105ET
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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EZ2

04/26/16 1:18 PM

#111878 RE: timhyma #111857

And then There Were Two: Exxon Loses Triple-A Rating -- Barron's Blog


DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 1:17 PM ET 4/26/2016


Exxon Mobil ( XOM) has lost its coveted triple-A credit rating.

Standard and Poor's lowered its rating one notch to double-A-plus on Tuesday due to its expectations that oil and gas prices will stay low and the company's financial results will no longer be strong enough to qualify for the highest rating through 2018. S&P has had Exxon on watch for a downgrade since February.

Now Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ) and Microsoft ( MSFT) are the only two companies with triple-A credit ratings left. Automatic Data Processing ( ADP) lost its triple-A rating two years ago.

Analysts ding the company for paying out more in dividends and share buybacks that it makes in internal free cash flow. They write:

We believe Exxon Mobil's credit measures will be weak for our expectations for a 'AAA' rating due, in part, to low commodity prices, high reinvestment requirements, and large dividend payments. The company's debt level has more than doubled in recent years, reflecting high capital spending on major projects in a high commodity price environment and dividends and share repurchases that substantially exceeded internally generated cash flow.

On the bright side, Exxon has very low leverage. S&P now has a stable credit outlook. Analysts say:

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Exxon Mobil Corp. will continue to follow moderate financial policies of low leverage and responsible capital stewardship. This expectation includes FFO to debt above 60% and debt to EBITDA below 1.5x.

More at Barron's Income Investing blog, http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-26-161317ET
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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**D*A**

08/17/16 12:46 PM

#115291 RE: timhyma #111857

I don't know if you are still in BP? If you are, I joined you today. Doubt if I hang around as long as you do. :-) I bought the September expiration, call(up) option contracts.