Big picture Oil is a product with dwindling demand bc of slowed global growth and clean energy alternatives. Oil producing countries are one trick ponies. Outside of oil what do they have to produce revenue? Shale hitting the scene and more fossil fuels available for the world market has just created more supply if oil can sustain $40, so why would opec want $40?
I don't see how any of this ends well for oil. It's like a group of car dealers with a glut of left over antiquated models on their lot just as they are all taking shipment of the new bigger better models. Just a matter of time before they all sell it at any price bc they know they are sitting on a product everyone has and the world will have less and less demand for.
Not saying this happens over night, but why on earth would Iran or SA not pump as much as they can as long as they can? $30 oil put some of their competition out of business... In a world with too much supply seems they would want to press that angle, not relent and give their competition a fighting chance.
OPEC cares more about production than price in today's oil market. Can't make an argument for that changing near term. Maybe we see a bump next week if they window dress this meeting, but that will fade by Friday... And I give that even a less than 30% chance of happening.
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