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gfp927z

04/06/16 3:50 PM

#42175 RE: SwingKing #42174

SwingKing, Thanks. Even though the dollar has held so far, I've been thinking the chart looks really vulnerable. The Fed put the dollar up there by ending QE and making it known they want to raise rates (while Europe was resorting to QE and aggressive easing), but the strong dollar is causing a lot of problems in emerging markets that are saddled with dollar denominated debt and in countries with currencies pegged to the dollar.

China was forced to devalue the yuan, and Jim Rickards was talking about growing pressures on the Saudis to devalue/break the riyal/dollar peg, which would represent a major financial earthquake. Also the US economy is slowing and the strong dollar is hurting earnings of the US multinationals, so the Fed may now want the dollar down.

And try as they might, the Fed hasn't been able to get inflation going to their 2% target (and they'd actually prefer 3%), so a lower dollar will help with that, plus allowing gold to rise some will also get the inflation machine going. As Rickards has pointed out, the fiat debt based money system we have cannot tolerate deflation for very long, so they're likely under pressure to resume a weaker dollar policy.

I guess only time will tell though. I appreciate your input :o)