PBK - Aloha! The picture for Capes going forward is projected to be very tough story. Every future cast I find indicates that Capes are not only overbuilt today, but their need will be rapidly falling off over the next several years. The sweet spot in dry bulk seems to be shaping up for Panamax though. Unclear if the current P-max spot rate will hold, but it above where it was last year at this time. Not that last year was all that great, but it is an interesting fact at the moment.
Q1 this year will simply be bad for all dry bulk carriers so DRYS won't be an exception. Q2 could actually be a bit surprising given how rates are moving up and this one of the busy times of the year for dry bulk. Basically, DRYS revenue could be OK in Q2.
So it comes down to the expense side of the equation and that is all about debt repayment. Will GE be able to renegotiate the loans? There in lies the all important question for DRYS. If he is successful in that endeavor, I believe DRYS will not just survive, but would have the opportunity to come back strongly. My suspicion is the ORIG shares being sold met 2 purposes:
1) GE will end up owning those at a bargain price.
2) The banks are being forced into renegotiating terms favorable to DRYS underscored by the underlying asset values - these are in the toilet due to shipping rates/revenues. No one will jump out to buy the ships if they are foreclosed and the banks have no appetite to own/maintain/operate ships.
DRYS has cash to operate for a while, which gives them some time at least to refinance. We'll likely know soon...
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