I don't trust longs on UJ regardless right now because of the sideways channel on the larger time frame. It smacks of consolidation with another leg down coming. But if a larger leg down occurs, it won't be because of dollar weakness, it will be because the market is scared and they'll flock to US dollars and the Yen, buying both like crazy.
AU in the near term is nothing but bearish. When a top is finally hit on anything and the first real pullback hits, nobody believes it so they pile right back in and drive it right back near the highs, but they don't quite achieve a new high in the process. The big money steps in then and jerks the rug out from under them and leaves them hanging.
It's just like retail investors and the market. They always seem to buy on the recovery bounce after the top is in because they're afraid they'll miss out on the next big run. Same here on AU...the buying is a dead cat bounce because folks think it'll drive higher over the next week or two but it won't...it'll continue to drop, offset by rallies that won't be able to break previous highs, at least for a while.
Psychology 101...gotta love it. :-)
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