Replies to post #192197 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[risk on]

Now, I do agree that large call buying in any security could suggest a move, same an be said for puts, but we also need to take the counter point, and that is; what about the people selling / writing all those contracts for those lanes. They too are indicators, indicators that counter the buyers. Clearly the buyers of those contracts were right today. Just want to make sure we look at the whole equation, not just one part. People sell when they think there is no more upside to off set their risk tolerance to hold, people write contracts when they suspect they will expire worthless, or the writers feel they can close the contract for cheaper than issuance price, that is the unspoken but equal counterpart to any option lane, just sayin. But, you did call it right.

[GuTA]

Agree and disagree. Have to stay nimble. Following that kind of money on no volume can end with your lights getting put out if you don't have the appropriate stops in place. Even then, we gap down and that stop is worthless.

I am not saying you're wrong, but I've seen many good traders lose dozens of winning days in 48 hours. Following the money pays long terms, but only if you maintain constant risk - reward perspective. The casino loves those that stay for one drink too many at the party. Bull or bear. I can pull up many bear posts from February where they thought 175 was clearly on deck. They had just as many good reasons if not more for their case, yet here we sit 185-205 in a heartbeat.