One of the originators of lefty blogging, Bartcop, has died at age 60, and he's taken his blog with him. If you never read him, Terry Coppage, his real name, was ass-kicking from the start. Bartcop was a breath of profane, fresh air that started in 1996, predating pretty much everything you know on the internet. All the things others do, from link aggregating to ranting to posting funny or sexy pictures, Bartcop was there as one of the first. He kept the crude look of the page, so much so that scrolling through even the most recent issues is like a trip back in time.
Bart's influence on this form of writing we all wallow around in is immeasurable. He was one of the Founders of Left Blogsylvania. And if you hadn't heard of him, well, think of him as our Delmore Schwartz, the poet who never achieved the huge fame of some of his peers but whose work had an immense effect on the art itself. Its existence and his no-bullshit style were an inspiration for this here blog. The Rude Pundit was honored to be on his blogroll.
The one request Bart had at the end was to give some support to his wife so that she may keep their Oklahoma home. The Rude Pundit has already donated. If you can, you should throw in a couple of bucks. You can get a PayPal link or an address on Bart's home page. If you haven't read him before, check out the most recent page.
Adios, Bart. We put your memory on the mantle with Steve Gilliard and others whose passing has left a hole in this community.
Professor Claims His Statistical Model Shows Who Will Become President
by Chris Morris February 26, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT
The Stonybrook University professor says his model has been only wrong once, since 1912.
While current political polls and even online gamblers say that Donald Trump is a longshot for the Oval Office, a Stony Brook University professor says his calculations show the tycoon is almost certain to win the election.
Prof. Helmut Norpath, appearing on Fox and Friends this morning, says Trump’s odds of winning the presidency are between 97-99%. Norpath says his calculations are based on historical models of primaries that have proven largely accurate for over 100 years.
Norpath says his model has only fallen short on one election since 1912 – the Bush-Gore race of 2000 (when Gore, in fact, won the popular vote).
“I’ve looked at elections in the past. And I’ve seen that the New Hampshire primary in particular is a very good predictor of what happens,” he said.
The root of his thesis seems to be Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, while Hillary Clinton failed to capture the state. That, he says, gives Trump a 97% chance of winning.
In a Trump vs. Bernie Sanders race, he says, Trump’s odds of victory go up to 99%.
“If you win the first two primaries and the other candidate does not … I think that would typically tell you something about the outcome,” he said.
Norpath acknowledged that results from Super Tuesday might alter the calculations and says he plans to factor those into future projections.
The odds are considerably better than Trump is seeing in other samples.
An average of six polls from news organizations on Real Clear Politics shows Trump leading the Republican field with 33.2%. And among Democrats, Clinton, with 47.2% is just five points ahead of Bernie Sanders.
And some online casinos give the candidate a 71% chance of winning the Republican nomination, but only a 24% chance of capturing the White House.
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