Replies to post #102121 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

I didn't look into their report in detail.

We started 2015 with an $8 EPS target. Then came the rain which affected the plantation, but more importantly construction at the MF was delayed which has a huge impact on earnings. Cattle prices collapsed. These factors alone will take you down to $4 EPS easily. I don't know what happened in Q4. Probably more of the same.

As for 2016, I think their estimate (of 1.78?) is wrong. You get an additional $15M income from imports and $3M from MF resale which they didn't include, IMO. Well, if the plantation does well this year and if they can acquire PF1/PF2/WC1 then the numbers could actually be good. But consultancy will be down, as it was in Q2 and presumably in Q4. So it will be tough to grow EPS substantially. That's why my EPS target for 2016 is a bit higher than the result for 2015.