Replies to post #3293 on Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

[mick]

thank you lots, very good wk fer oil and markets domestic international

[DiscoverGold]

Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures

* March 26, 2016

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 22, 2016. Change is week-over-week.

Crude oil: So a deal among some OPEC members and Russia to freeze production is meaningless as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, according to a senior IEA official.

Mid-February, Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members Qatar and Venezuela agreed with Russia (non-OPEC) to freeze output at January levels. Libya and Iran are not going along. Not sure how much the IEA comment contributed to crude oil’s decline this week.

Technicals definitely did.

Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average. Right above lied another layer of resistance at 43.50 going back to January 2015. Off the February 11th low, oil rallied 63 percent, so fatigue was setting in.

Plus, U.S. crude supply continued to rise. Yet another record. In the week ended March 18th, stocks rose another 9.4 million barrels to 532.5 million barrels. In the past 11 weeks, inventory has gone up by 50.2 million barrels!

Crude imports rose, too, by 691,000 barrels/day to 8.4 million b/d. This was the highest since June 2013.

Markets had been ignoring the parabolic rise in inventory, instead focusing on gasoline stocks, which dropped by another 4.6 million barrels to 245 million barrels. Stocks are now down by 13.6 million barrels in the past five weeks.

Similarly, crude production fell by 30,000 b/d to nine mb/d. Production reached a record 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th (2015) week.

Distillates, however, rose, by 917,000 barrels to 162.3 million barrels. And refinery utilization fell by six-tenth of a percent to 88.4 percent.

On March 16th, spot WTI broke out of resistance at 38 and change. That support was tested on Thursday – successfully. Daily overbought conditions have unwinding left still. Odds favor crude continues to come under pressure next week. There is good support at just below 35.

Non-commercials continue to add net longs – now at 21-week high.

Currently net long 308.7k, up 41.3k.



http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-36/

• George.

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