Replies to post #258467 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[JamesGMS]

Paul, thank you for your response reprinted below:

Unfortunately, I believe you are wrong on many fronts - so I'm not quite sure how to respond - but please note Jake's response to your post below - as he and I agree that "time is indeed of the essence" at this juncture - so, as SK spelled out quite clearly on the last CC - PPHM is now working diligently with world class partners to "get the show on the road" so to speak - and as such, partnerships will be coming soon - with AZN now clearly the first and very logical choice if they wish to have any hope of catching up to - and possibly passing by - BMS and Opdivo.

And just as an aside - for sake of discussion lets assume my prior statement is correct - then think for just a moment about the relative LEVERAGE each party brings to the negotiating table - In short - Who needs who more?? I think a good argument could be made that AZN needs PPHM - and of course Bavi - more than PPHM needs AZN. I only point this out to demonstrate that some pretty good terms - from a PPHM standpoint - may still be quite reasonable to achieve - and both parties will want to reach that deal ASAP.

One other point to keep in mind {and as I'm sure Entdoc would agree} - the bar is still extremely low in NSCLC - so if you put ANY WEIGHT on Dr. Brekken's research, then a Durvalumab plus Bavi combo could very easily not only blow away the Opdivo SOC of just 12.2 months MOS - but would very likely dramatically increase overall response rates as well.

James

i have to disagree.... the I-O arms race is on.... the tech needs to be put in stronger and more competent hands and now is the time to do it....

JamesGMS, believe me I am much poorer due to the Sunrise results. I don't characterize the results as a flop with any pleasure whatsoever.

However, I have to call it the way the IDMC calls it. In this second line NSCLC Phase III trial, Bavi did not help patients enough to merit continuing the trial.

So, at this point there is no evidence that Bavi will get FDA approval for anything. No approval, no sales. No sales, no value.

Bavi is not done yet, but it has not proved the anti-PS approach has any practical value. So neither does the IP.

In view of that Peregrine is in crisis mode. Not enough money to fully fund the company for the additional years now required to prove Bavi and the anti-PS platform have value.

I am very happy to point out that Avid may have the potential to carry Bavi and Peregrine until we get irrefutably good news from the clinic.

If Peregrine management has the sense to drastically reduce development expenses until an expanded Avid can carry the load, we may be OK. I don't like to think about the devastating dilution if they don't.

Paul

[eastcoastguy]

Agreed PTL, research and development of BAVI plus I/O has been relegated to others. AVID needs to increase revenue to help stem the losses.

I know many are hopeful that AZN is sitting there ready to make a deal with PPHM but I think that is more wishful thinking. AZN is running combo trials with other drugs and looking for the best fit. They haven't even started a trial with us yet. Where is the urgency?

On a plus note I expected a lot more volume on the downside. It was controlled and the institutions weren't selling in large. Who is buying up the shares?

I had hoped to hear they understood the urgency to cut expenses and expand AVID. Maybe they are just playing poker with BP, no panic here, we know what we have even though we just took it on the chin in both Ph2 and 3.

Bought more to average down to what I think is AVID plus cash. The market will not value BAVI until positively proved out. We have no other candidate drugs to fall back on. KOL's and the best cancer research hospitals are in our corner....but for how long? We need at least some kind of win, if it's more of the same old, same old then a RS is in our future. They can't believe it's financially responsible to run the ATM at .40?

We are not alone with trial failure because of outperforming control groups, but we seem to get more then our share. Can't wait to hear from Garnick.

Feels like an early Spring in Maine!

eastcoastguy