Replies to post #40969 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Analysis: Rice visit to region was leaked too soon

By NATHAN GUTTMAN
The Jerusalem Post
Jul. 19, 2006 2:06 | Updated Jul. 19, 2006 3:53

The news about dispatching Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the region leaked out a little too soon. President George W. Bush, unaware of the open microphone in front him, promised PM Tony Blair that "Condi is going pretty soon," but the administration is still deliberating the exact timing of such a visit. Sources in Washington said Tuesday that Rice will not be leaving before early next week and that the visit will be more of a stopover on her way to Asia than a full-force diplomatic shuttle mission.

The delays in sending a senior US official to the region are not merely a scheduling issue. The US does not feel ready to step in quite yet and try to mediate between the fighting sides. Israeli sources said in recent days that they have heard nothing but complete backing from administration officials and that there is no intention at this point to take any action that would stop Israel's military activity.

Once Secretary Rice embarks on her mission to the Middle East, it will serve as a sign for Israel that the window of opportunity to act militarily against Hizbullah is closing and that the US believes it is time for diplomacy. But that moment has not arrived yet.

"We would love to see a ceasefire," said White House spokesman Tony Snow on Tuesday, but he immediately added that this goal will have to be put off for the meanwhile. "A ceasefire that will leave the status quo ante intact is unacceptable," Snow said.

A brief press conference by Secretary Rice herself, accompanied by her Egyptian counterpart Ahmed Aboul Gheit, demonstrated clearly how the administration feels about the calls for a ceasefire: "We all want a cessation of violence, we all want the protection of civilians, but we have to make certain that anything we do will be of lasting value."

The Egyptian foreign minister, standing beside Rice, replied immediately, "The ceasefire is imperative - we have to bring it to an end as soon as possible."

Rice, insisting on having the last word, stepped back to the podium and added, "We all agree that it should happen as soon as possible, when conditions are conducive to do so," making clear that the time has not yet come or a ceasefire.

There is no feeling of urgency conveyed by the US to Israel regarding the need to end or to limit the military operation in Lebanon. The complete backing that President Bush provided Israel is supported also by Congress, which will begin on Wednesday to deliberate resolutions supporting Israel.

The American backing does not derive solely from the sympathy to Israel's action and the belief that Hizbullah should be dealt with. The military operation launched by Israel is seen as beneficial for the US on several other fronts: It may lead to the significant weakening of Hizbullah, an outcome that will help the American-backed government of Fuad Saniora in Beirut and strengthen the Lebanese democracy; the conflict in Lebanon also helps the US highlight the danger posed by Iran, not only as a potential nuclear power but also as a sponsor of terrorism; it may have the same affect on Syria, making the international community see Syria as a sponsor of terrorism and thus increasing pressure on the regime of Bashar Assad.

The main consideration of the Bush administration at present is how to maintain good relations with the international community, the UN and especially Britain, while putting off any pressure for what the US and Israel would see as a premature ceasefire. The US is not closing the door on the suggestion put forward by Britain and the UN to deploy a multinational force in southern Lebanon, but it is far from endorsing the plan. For the US, time is the name of the game.

The main goal of American diplomacy right now is to keep the situation under control for as long as possible and to move in with mediation efforts only when Israel exhausts its military options in Lebanon.

© 2006 The Jerusalem Post.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150886039187&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

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Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In Georgia, the big news was Ralph Reed's defeat, but there were other key primary races decided yesterday. In the Dems' gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor (D) defeated Georgia Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D), 51% to 45%. Cox immediately said she would back Taylor, telling supporters, "He can be assured of my support in the months to come," she said. "Tonight a new season begins."

* Also in Georgia, Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D), facing voters for the first time since her run-in with a Capitol Hill police officer a few months ago, came in first in a Dem primary, but didn't do well enough to avoid a run-off. McKinney will face her main challenger, Hank Johnson, a former county commissioner, on Aug. 8. As of last night, she edged Johnson by fewer than 1,500 votes/

* In Alabama, George Wallace Jr., the son of the former governor, lost a GOP primary in his bid to become lieutenant governor. Wallace lost to newcomer Luther Strange, 55% to 45%.

* Keeping with a Southern theme, former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker's (R) campaign released a poll yesterday showing Corker well ahead in Tennessee's GOP Senate primary. The poll showed Corker leading with 46% support, followed by former Rep. Ed Bryant at 24%, and former Rep. Van Hilleary at 17%. As Roll Call noted, early voting for the Aug. 3 primary is already under way.

* And in 2008 news, the Des Moines Register reported today that four likely Dem presidential candidates — Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Tom Vilsack, and Mark Warner — each paid $50,000 for access to the Iowa Democratic Party's electronic voter information file this year. The state party does not ordinarily make the list available this early, but officials wanted to "seize on the early start to the 2008 campaign."

Tags: Ralph Reed, Mark Taylor, Cathy Cox, Cynthia McKinney, Hank Johnson, George Wallace, Luther Strange, Bob Corker, Ed Bryant, Van Hilleary