Replies to post #255366 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[tradero]

Danny, I like your down to earth thoughts... unfounded wishful thinking can be our worst enemy.
I tend to agree with most of your reflections. And though I am not sure it was Dart (or not) who paused the disaster, it clearly had to be "somebody" who somewhat controled the trading that day.
I guess some hope is still left

Thanks for your insight, like always very appreciated.
J

[md1225]

Thanks Danny my thoughts exactly.

[jakedogman1]

agree that the go it alone plan is done.... now's the time for an experienced BOD and time to change it before the next ASM....

first something to chew on... pretty much supports all MassHysteria has been saying...

http://www.curetoday.com/articles/fda-expands-opdivo-approval-in-lung-cancer

although the short term will be brutal, changing mgmt's attitude of go it alone and they have the keys to the kingdom hopefully is over... i've said for years that bavi and IP needs to be in stronger hands...

from the article (and before sorting out the diff with PDL-1)

"The median OS with Opdivo was 12.2 versus 9.4 months with docetaxel. The one-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates were 19 percent and 8 percent." read the article to see diff in PDL-1 associated survival which is far more important imo...

as far as the control arm anomaly, BP can figure that part out... enough data is out there to figure things out... and from what i understand, going forward with treatment, patients will be screened for PDl-1.... so chemo is done...

Gretzky scored his goals by anticipating where the puck was going, not where it had been

the window for positioning and getting in the game is now, not 12 months from now with un-blinded bavi data.... so imo getting "clean" untainted bavi data now is more important than getting possible approval for a dead horse a year from now... i think mgmt knows this and so does BP...

if i were King for a day (and not the SK type) i would be getting the top two or three horses to the table and getting something done soon... SK may be great in the lab and on the science but as a CEO, he is out of his element... and the BOD adds zero value as far as strategic advice...

and if the go it alone as far as approval was still viable in mgmt's brain, how easy do you think it would be to sabotage a small manufacturing operation (particularly when most of the employees are new) .... IMO BP would want to control everything... how easy do you think it would be to throw patent challenges on a tiny biotech... so all kinds of risk going forward with a go alone strategy..

the PS road shows with all the KOL's start soon... my guess is BP's pay more attention to these folks than a wall street banker.. do you think the KOL story changes because of a control arm anomaly with a small set of data? don't think so...

so in my opinion, lots of value (relative to $.41 ps) is there with a competitive situation ie two or three BP's and the PS coming out parties ... and the window is now (next 6 months)... and imo mgmt needs to state that strategy to stabilize the share price (if the want to which is a big question in my mind)

imo we are being played with on the share price.... the big question is how will mgmt play the cards on "Value"? and how will mgmt act as fiduciaries in obtaining that value for shareholders?

[LOOKING4WINNERS]

No one knows what AZN is thinking or going to do but if they walk, we are screwed. We have 2 hopes to cling to:

1) AZN trials continue and are earth shattering
2) A buyout of the scraps that are left of the Bavi technology and of course AVID

There are no other trials or studies that will drive this stock upward - at least that have been disclosed. We are now only a pure speculative stock! AVID is keeping the stock above $0 but no chance above $1 so we have an R/S coming. Even this idiotic management group is smart enough to know that OTC is not the way to go as proof they R/S'ed before. Good luck all but we are in low odds territory on drivers taking this stock higher.

[onco]

Well said and thought out thanks

[eastcoastguy]

I like your thoughts on the bracketed trading Friday. Dart or another II took the majority at around .40. I seem to remember Dart's first buy in Fall 2010 around 1.60/sh. His 2nd buy was 1.08/sh. So if he is a believer buying at .40 would bring his average down to a buck or so.

After watching the trading early Friday I put in a limit order at .40. It didn't execute for 1/2 hr or so. It filled with mostly small lots. I suspected we'd have panic, wild swings, and much more volume. We'll see what Monday brings.

In our next CC I'd like to hear how we have streamlined costs and hunkered down with I/O trials. It wouldn't hurt to see some management buys.

[nh]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on all this. Very insightful post. One thought I had when reading this was that the space between last Friday's lows and Dart's avg. share price will be defended, if Dart was the buyer. Not too many people will be able to buy in that range between .40 and .60-.70. That gap might fill relatively quickly, which would ensure no other parties become future competitors in that range, thus protecting Dart's avg. share price advantage. He would not be happy with another party or lots of retailers being able to compete with his avg. share price.