if there is any intention on pphm's part to justify stopping the trial because of some clever plan to take the now-unblinded data through another avenue faster than a full trial would have allowed for, there is only one word that describes their action.
Superb and great post! Many thoughts in there I have had, except I was not thinking about using the Sunrise data the BTD pathway because I was not aware ( or forget ) what exactly the criteria were for applying for a BTD. I always remember back to Garnick saying applying "back then" for BTD was not the fastest way to approval.... but maybe "now" applying for BTD with so much Bavi+Docetaxel data is amazing.
As for Peregrine having more options to make a deal with a BP I totally agree with ! No BP's want to face competition for a Sunrise FDA approval and that limits their return profit since Docetaxel is generic as stated. Think of how many Billions would have been LOST just in the NSCLC space with a Bavi+Docetaxel FDA approval because some BP can't use their drug such as Durvulmab to bring in those profits.
Having all access to that data now is crucial
Having all access to that data for BTD application is crucial
No BP's have to worry about competing with Bavi+Docetaxel
I have to re-read that again.... and would Peregrine have access to information to who exactly has been buying or selling from the transfer agent? They must be keeping a close eye on that
My oh my.... K&L Gates seems to be leaving no choice for some BP to make a deal with Peregrine.
NiceCP, Also, All Friday's AfterHours Trades Above ClosingPrice...
I would also like to add a couple things not included in your post.
AVID has a large Backlog of Open Orders and pending future orders. With AVID II on verge of production, isn't it possible, and maybe part of PPHM's plan, that they gear up production and fill those orders much sooner than projected, thereby increasing short term in house funding???
And, as I posted friday, I want to point out that PPHM NEVER said all of the dozens of collaborations were only involving Bavituximab. PPHM has been pursuing WorldWide Patents for PS and BetaBodies and my thought is many of the Dozens of Collaborations may involve BetaBodies while working with MSK, NCCN, AZN, etc., etc.!
I believe many other posters have pointed out that it is possible to get BTD (or maybe something similar but actually called something else other than BTD that I don't currently remember) without a Phase 3, Phase 2, or even a Phase 1.
I believe it has been posted that an Orphan Status drug can receive BTD with only Clinical Study Results, right? Again, perhaps I am using wrong terminology, but I believe the basic fact conveyed was that FDA can approved certain drugs for certain unmet needs without any Phase 1,2, or 3 Studies... if FDA feels there is sufficient Clinical evidence to support that decision, right?
If true, it would have been unwise and premature for PPHM to announce last year that they would be trying to expedite FDA approval of BetaBodies because, at the time the patents were still being reviewed. I don't know if they have been burning the candle at both ends, but with what was previously mentioned about BetaBodies in the past, I sure hope PPHM has not been letting it sit on a shelf and collect dust while waiting to see if the Sun would rise for bavituximab...
As a stockholder, I want to believe that PPHM has not spent the last 2 years only watching all the eggs in one basket! I don't believe PPHM is a one trick pony. I am hopeful that they have been working on other possibilities using their vast patented pipeline... aren't you?
I'm wondering how the Clinical Studies Results for BetaBodies look? How Many more mice have been completely cured? Has MSK, NCCN, CDC, Birge, etc., etc., reviewed the Clinical results for BetaBodies?
Thanks for your post. We all need to try not to trade on emotion.
Glta Stockholders, Employees, Patients, and Their/Our Families too!
Respectfully, to suggest that PPHM stopped the trial to avoid setting a higher bar is far fetched and strains your credibility. When they got the IDMC recommendation to stop, PPHM may have decided it was better to shut it down, conserve cash and already manufactured Bavi and put those resources toward I-O trials, rather than hope things could possibly improve by continuing the trial and likely waste more resources.
They likely also obtained earlier access to the data to see what could be learned to tweak or improve upcoming trial designs to avoid future mediocre results.
But to suggest this was all an elaborate plan to get a better partnership with a BP is silly. Number one, this casts an even bigger dark cloud over Bavi. Two, they just lost leverage. Three, the ability to raise funds they will need took a serious hit. Four, there is no evidence these guys have outmanuevered anyone at any time other than maybe the PPHMP funding. To the contrary, they look to have been blindsided many many times over the years.
PPHM's back is against the wall, again. Hopefully they can cut some costs, grow Avid to regain some leverage while some high powered institutions test Bavi in combo with some I-O products. Hopefully their expectations have been tempered and they can get a reasonable deal that benefits existing shareholders before we are diluted to oblivion and possibly another RS.
Thanks cp - very interesting thoughts to say the least. Curious if there is any precident on the early exit of p3 out of interest of speed on evaluating data as it is clearly a race.
Incorrect. Shareholders lose big time because there will be more trials needed which cost time and money - money through MORE dilution which means that the price potential of the shares goes DOWN LOWER than otherwise. Furthermore, that additional dilution will require THREE times as many shares at 40 cents versus $1.20. It's a negative compounding effect that destroys shareholder value - FACT!
RE " the bulls were in charge " Fantasy. 62% DROP in price. FACT. 20% down is a BEAR. 62% is armageddon for goodness sake.
RE "I mean if this stop has been part of PPHM chosen path to approval"
Huh? the trial FAILED, did you miss that? FDA does NOT approve drugs that fail phase III - period - end of story.
Did you hear the conference call? There was a state of shock! This is not some master plan at work.
PPHM spent OVER 2 YEARS and tens of millions of DILUTIVE cash to stop their own trial early? No.
RE "The nothing is wrong with the trial"
Except that it failed. Other than that it's all roses......
The ONLY positive thing I can say about recent events is that Fridays volume was significantly smaller that I would have expected given the horrible news.
"the bulls were in charge". A stock tanks over 60% to 41 cents and someone says the bulls were in charge? LOL. The bulls weren't even "in charge" when PPHM was struggling to stay above one dollar.
Posting like that normally doesn't deserve a reply. However, since you are so serious, I'll give a shot. I don't expect any better understanding than what you posted because your posting showed you don't have FULL understanding of clinical trial process, including design and implementation, your knowledge came from INCOMPLETE reading here and there pieced together, sometimes you misunderstood and sometimes you took it literally from those who didn't explain in full details.
1. Futility analysis: Futility stop is based on pre-specified efficacy futility boundary set by the sponsor company in this case PPHM - IDMC don't make up standard as they go rather simply follow the pre-specified boundary - in this case likely hazard ratio (HR) around 1 at 33% events. It doesn't depend on mOS as many here think because mOS is just a byproduct quoted by most because it is simpler and easier to understand for general public. It is a very easy decision to make once it crossed the futility boundary because there is NO other choice but to stop the trial. Given PPHM stops other chemo combination trials as well, it makes me think HR >>1 in this case.
2. 2-month difference in study design: it doesn't mean any 2-month difference would meet pre-specified endpoint. 6 vs 8 months, 8 vs 10 months, 10 vs 12 months, 12 vs 14 months implied different hazard ratio (HR) 0.75, 0.8, 0.83, 0.86 respectively, would require different trial size. A 2-month difference from 12 vs 14 month is not going to be statistically significant if a trial is powered based on assumption HR=0.75, thus smaller treatment effect (2-month difference from 12 vs 14) requires larger trial size than larger treatment effect (2-month difference from 6 vs 8) to achieve statistically significance. People who have underlying knowledge of trial design know what PPHM meant by 2-month while people who don't take it literally.
3. There is nothing wrong with Bavituximab if it performed as trial originally designed when comparator arm performed better than expected: If Bavituximab plus docetaxel performed as expected, say mOS=11 months while docetaxel alone arm performed better than expected 9-month, say 11 month also thus HR=1, this translates to adding Bavituximab to docetaxel does NOTHING to improve docetaxel alone. That's what's called a FAILED drug according to everyone's definition except a few on this board. Control arm doing better than expected is one of major reasons of trial failure cited by almost every company. However, trial goal is never for one arm to perform as expected, rather goal is relative to the other arm, hazard ratio (HR) in survival analysis.
4. An example of trial design vs result: Nivolumab vs Everolimus in 2nd line RCC, design was HR=0.76 (corresponding mOS= 14.8 vs 19.5 months). Result was mOS =19.6 vs 25 months where both arms mOS outperformed as expected. Even though everolimus arm outperformed expectation by wide margin 4.8 months, Nivolumab outperformed expectation by even wider margin 5.5 months, trial met primary endpoint hazard ratio HR=0.73 (p=0.0018).
5. Another example of trial design vs result: Nivolumab vs Docetaxel in 2nd line squamous NSCLC, design was HR=0.61 (corresponding mOS= 7 vs 11.4 months). Result was mOS =6 vs 9.2 months where both arms underperformed as expected, but it doesn't matter as primary endpoint is hazard ratio HR=0.59 (p=0.00025).
CP, I was just rereading your posts and looking specifically on what actually caused the pps drop after the Nasdaq halt. Is it possible that while the Nasdaq halt occurred 100 million of the market cap was pulled out of the market and if so why and can it be returned in the same manner? I guess I don't understand why the market cap went from 200m to 100m immediately after the halt and has remained this way based on the first low ask after the halt.
Snippet of one of your earlier posts after the sunrise halt: "And actually the PPS was brought down in the first minutes because of how the quoting system works after a NASDAQ Halt and before Time & Sales (Trading) resumed. Someone was first in putting in a Low Ask and as a consequence all Bids, not allowed to cross the market, had to be below it."
This is the part of your post I'm trying to understand because I never thought the market cap could drop to 100 M even on negative sunrise news due to cash on hand, revenue of avid, and the value of their 145 world wide patents. Yet here we sit with a 94 M market cap, 21% less than our actual stockholder equity.
CP, it may soon be time to discuss those initial thoughts after Sunrise stopped and BTD seems about a guarantee now with the latest Sunrise facts of MOS not reached for those patients that had Bavi...(immune system primed ...) and then moving towards another IO drug
We should be sitting back at 2012 $5.40 levels...about $37.80 pps
....I wonder when Peregrine filed for BTD .... a BP not worrying about Bavi+Doce FDA approval but they have some more importantly safety data in how the immune system should be primed before IO treatments like Opdivo or Keytruda....or with Biomarkers it may be proven that FDA should allow BTD for all to have the Bavi edge to prime ones immune system first ....
Now, has anyone else requested the list of all IDMC members on Sunrise ? Even some that were once possibly on the IDMC and then were not or pulled off for any reason or all involved in knowing the data that was in hand
An IDMC (Independent Data Monitoring Commission) committee message
OK so now more and more investors agree the business model of Peregrine Pharmaceuticals - now Avid Bioservices includes milestones and royalties for PS Targeting and the range is from Millions to Billions for that 15% royalty on IP asset transfer contract that is still in question due to ... well, we will get there
In the meantime, as investigations continue I liked bleedpurple line of “PS Targeting is REAL”
I would say a real pain in the A$$ for Merck
Let us walk back on the IP asset transfer as being told “ no real interest in PS Targeting “ yet Oncologie was found and immediately Merck all of a sudden gained interest again : ) WHY?
As CEO Laura Benjamin publicly stated ...the patients in Merck’s Keytruda trial lived longer than all others that did not have their immune systems primed with Bavitiuximab from the Sunrise trial that was stopped by the IDMC
The facts are Merck knows how good PS Targeting work — so well that patients live much longer!
Guess who were all the members were from the Sunrise trial - IDMC ? I think some would find it of interest and of interest who pays them prior to that IDMC and after what jobs some received and which payroll they are on !
Let’s not forget Adam Yopp on Merck’s payroll
Let’s pick this apart from the beginning and all will find out how big and real PS Targeting truly is — and you think Merck or other BP interests would have wanted PS Targeting approved back in sabotage of 2012? Or a clever sabotage of Sunrise trial with IDMC stopping trial ?
Biomarkers and patents are worth BILLIONS for speedy FDA trials that will one day work with medical devices worn everyday
Merck payroll stretches globally ...but hey, we are making progress as PS Targeting was real in 2004 and more real in 2012 and real in 2020
Maybe Morgan Stanley investors will ask some additional clever questions unless Laura Benjamin has an emergency lol as Dr Jedd Wolchok once has when he was about to come forward with “real PS Targeting info “
It is also real that Dr Jedd Wolchok has ACTIVE PENDING PS TARGETING drugs patent pending but they never input that patient data into IBM Watson Health ..did they?