Aloha PBK - There are a lot of points to consider with trading DRYS for ORIG. I haven't followed ORIG as closely and would not be so bold to suggest one over the other. As I understand it, ORIG has a lot of cash on hand, but is also being impacted to some degree by contract cancellations. Interestingly enough, they will be paid a large percentage of the original contract value due to the early terminations. So cash flow is at risk over the next 18 - 24 months, which leads into the payments that will come due in 2017 and 2018. Basically they have a lot of debt in front of them to deal with. Many people are forecasting ORIG's demise because of the mountain of debt contrasted against the cash on hand. The question is whether more contract cancellations are likely and I simply don't have that answer.
One mitigating consideration is what happens to the value of the debt given the high risk? Assuming its value is significantly depreciated, ORIG may simply buy it back at a huge discount as they already have saving 10's or possibly 100's of millions. This has been a part of their strategy and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't continue to do so and knock the debt done significantly.
Assuming 50% fleet still contracted, a large percentage of the debt bought back, can ORIG continue in business for the next 3 years? My guess is that is how long it will take for oil prices to move back above $60 and make exploration projects viable again and by extension ORIG's business.
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