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TheHound

02/09/16 9:39 AM

#139406 RE: GregChase #139404

Whoohoo! Comparator is vancomycin. HUGE!

I Need Help

02/09/16 9:43 AM

#139409 RE: GregChase #139404

Typical of Leo.

Not saying the news isn't good. It is. Not saying I oppose the timing of the PR. I do.

But, the market is not being persuaded. Leo and CTIX investors just need to endure. And, Leo needs to up his game. Maybe he could try and surprise the market.

I do thank you for the update and link.

Still on the lookout for CTIX to really take off. Not likely to be today though.

Ernesto

02/09/16 9:51 AM

#139415 RE: GregChase #139404

it could be a market leader and potentially generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually.



I don't know if there is anything to read into here but Leo is not stating our potential as equal to what Daptomycin is doing ($1B+/year).

I think this may support more conservative valuations as offered by Noretreat for the sale of Brilacidin.

Cubicin was purchased for $7-8B (giving it the lion's share of the $9B Cubist deal) with an established revenue rate over $1B.

Assume Brilacidin has a relatively clear path to $100M/year with a 17 year patent. You get 10x earnings putting us at $1B. Now, the stream won't be established at sale/partner time so there must be a risk discount and some meat left on the bone for the buyer. Probably puts the sale of Brilacidin in the $500M-800M range which will be $3-6/share depending on where we are share count wise.

The important thing will be that it will provide lots of validation to the rest of the HDM platform and shore up the company financially for good.

Amatuer17

02/09/16 9:52 AM

#139416 RE: GregChase #139404

Same story - PR is not saying that protocol submitted but will be submitted in 2 weeks.
(Hopefully we do not get one PR when the papers are put in FEDEX envelope)

The P3 start was expected for so long that these PRs is not news at all - it clearly seems to counter the bad effect of 10-Q

Also some had predicted that the comparator will be Dapto but seems he has gone safe route with Vanco (actually good approach as it has much less risk)