I actually think that is a pretty good analysis but there are a few caveats. ERHC does not have the same upside as it had when they were drilling 4 fully funded wells in the JDZ. There were resource estimates in the billions for their blocks in the JDZ with at least 4 chances to hit something. Now the resource estimates in Kenya are in the 600-700 million bbl range with only one partially funded well being drilled. Plus the valuation isn't going to be the same now on a per bbl basis as it was when oil prices were much higher. That means to get to the same position now that you were when the JDZ was being drilled, you need to own a much higher percentage of the company, not the same percentage.
Another thing to look at is whether ERHC still represents the best chance of a discovery. I would say probably not. I still say they have only one shot and not much more. Any funding for more wells will come with even more dilution. So are there other companies out there that offer a better chance of a discovery? Probably so. Are any of those priced as attractively as ERHC and have has much upside? Maybe or maybe not. But I know of several that are very close.
My personal is opinion is I would prefer to have more than one chance at a discovery with more than one company, so I think it is better to spread my money and my risk around to increase my odds. But, to each their own.
And then there is the management at ERHC. Some will continue to defend them no matter what they do, some will flip-flop and have conflicting thoughts about them and some think have been awful for a very long time and see nothing to indicate that is EVER going to change.
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