Replies to post #71146 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Whosetosay]

Keytruda and Optivo have around $500M in sales in 2015. Add Xalkori for $500M, that $1B. Pfizer sees Xalkori at $1B in 2020. This analyst saw $8.8B in 2018.

He likely added EGFR to the mix. '113 is useless against EGFR, although Ariad had touted it as effective early on.

We'll be 3rd or 4th to the party, including againg a PD-1 competitor.

'113 should generate healthy sales, but this article is misleading as to the market/dynamics.

[Whosetosay]

The legacy crowd here remembers the Ariad Investor/poster "biotechedge", aka BTH, who when we were all so bullish, he would complain that the stock 'couldn't hold a gain'. (I cleaned that up!)

BTH sold at $13, and bought a ranch somewhere. He was not overly swayed by the scientific and company PRs that came out, sold a what we thought was a bad price, and moved on. He looks smart now.

As to the article posted yesterday, glass posted this yesterday (edited by me for compliance to TOU):

The author of "Here’s Why Ariad Could Be a Top Oncology Pick for 2016" notes toward the end that he foresees a number of positive catalysts for ARIA in 2016, prefaced with the qualifier "if everything goes smoothly."

However, I would note that we -- especially the pre-crater crowd -- are well aware of how major a hurdle this is, as almost every step at Ariad is a stumble (like with Briga: slow getting trial started, clung to EGFR idea, insisted on heavy dose and killed a dude, re-vamped trial process took ages...).

So it's fine to be optimistic if we have managed to fall up the stairs and are pretty much at the finish line. But there are any number of pitfalls that we could hit still.

So my reaction is to look askance at the analysis.

Point being, it is easy to run wild with the possibilities that Ariad could present. History tells us, walking is probably a better way to go.