In an honest market I would agree with you, problem is the mm's know where all the stops are and can put this wherever they want. I can see 1.20s today
RSI at 36.00, I think you're a little early for the party. El Nino is in full swing and aside from a cold front attempting to push down into the northern and mid-west states the east and west coasts are very warm. RSI could easily slide below 20 and natgas will likely re-test previous lows in the 1.76 range.
I think we see UGAZ well below 2.00 before this reverses.